Houston 2025: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen preview, head-to-head, prediction, odds and pick | U.S. Men's Clay Court Championships

Match Details

Fixture: (2) Frances Tiafoe vs (5) Alex Michelsen

Date: April 4, 2025

Tournament: U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championships 2025

Round: Quarterfinals

Venue: River Oaks Country Club, Houston, Texas, USA

Surface: Clay

Category: ATP 250

Prize Money: $710,735

Live Telecast: USA – Tennis Channel | UK – Sky Sports | Canada – TSN+ | India – TennisTV

Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen preview

Former World No. 10 Tiafoe finished runner-up in Houston last year | Image Source: Getty

2023 Houston Open champion Frances Tiafoe will face fifth-seeded Alex Michelsen for a place in the semifinals of the ATP 250 tournament on Friday (April 4).

Tiafoe had put together a mediocre campaign on the ATP Tour prior to this week, dropping six of his 12 matches. The World No. 17 is looking for a reversal of fortune at the U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championships, where he has reached the title match in the last two years.

Having received a first-round bye, the American defeated Australia’s Adam Walton 7-5, 6-3 in just over one and a half hours to book his berth in the last eight at Houston. His quarterfinals opponent, Michelsen, has already enjoyed a positive result as he won his first match at the Texas event against fellow NextGen upstart Learner Tien 6-4, 6-2 earlier this week.

The 20-year-old then came from a set down to defeat French veteran Adrian Mannarino 6-7(0), 6-4, 6-2 in two hours and 31 minutes in the third round of the 2025 U.S. Men’s Clay Court Championships.

Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen head-to-head

Tiafoe leads Michelsen 1-0 in their head-to-head meetings on the ATP Tour. The World No. 17 defeated his lower-ranked opponent in straight sets at last year’s Dallas Open.

Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen odds

Player	Moneyline	Handicap Bets	Total Games (Over/Under)
Alex Michelsen	+154	-1.5 (+300)	Over 21.5 (-170)
Frances Tiafoe	-200	+1.5 (-525)	Under 21.5 (+118)

All odds sourced from BetMGM.

Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen prediction

Alex Michelsen hits a backhand in Houston | Image Source: Getty

Tiafoe’s baseline game has been underwhelming for a while now. The 27-year-old’s forehand has become less potent and fails to penetrate the court. That said, his recent weaknesses will not be as exploitable on the claycourts in Houston, meaning Michelsen will have to carefully construct points to put his older opponent on the backfoot.

The World No. 34, on his part, has powerful groundstrokes and an accurate first serve. The American struggles with consistency and low margin on his shots from time to time. He has been in impressive form this year, reaching the Round of 16 in Melbourne and the semifinals in Delray Beach.

In that regard, Michelsen has favorable chances of springing an upset over the second seed in Houston.

Pick: Michelsen to win in straight sets.