My Deadspin re-debut did not go as planned. A narrow one-goal overtime loss derailed our hockey over/under bet last night, but today I come back to you with another total—this one on the hardwood.
In the event of Anthony Edwards’ one-game suspension—after his two technical fouls in last night’s loss to the Lakers lifted his season total to 16—the Timberwolves’ budding superstar is forced by rule to sit out the next contest.
That comes tonight in Utah against the Jazz, where the two Northwest Division residents meet with a total of 226.5 points.
Don’t be fooled by Utah’s Western Conference-worst 14-44 record. While the Jazz aren’t anywhere close to sniffing a playoff berth in 2025, this is a club that could actually be decent if it could stay healthy.
Its quartet of solid talent—Lauri Markkanen, Collin Sexton, John Collins and Jordan Clarkson—have all missed numerous games this year. As it stands, Markkanen is the only one ruled out for tonight, while the other three are listed as game-time decisions.
The Wolves, meanwhile, will also be dealing with their own key absences. Aside from Edwards being out for disciplinary reasons, Minnesota won’t have Rudy Gobert, Julius Randle or Donte DiVincenzo due to injuries.
That means the Timberwolves’ leading scorer from tonight’s roster is Naz Reid with 14.9 points per game. Only one other player—Jaden McDaniels—is averaging double digits.
When fully healthy, both teams rank near the bottom third of the league in scoring. Utah is No. 19, averaging 112.2 points per game, with Minnesota right behind at 111.9.
Removing Edwards from the equation is about as meaningful as it gets compared to any other star in the league. Not only does the 23-year-old rank fourth in the NBA in scoring with 27.3 points per game, but his 20.8 field goal attempts per game also rank fourth.
In addition, Edwards ranks 10th in the NBA in free throw attempts, getting to the line 6.1 times per game. From an offensive perspective, there might be no more impactful player to his team than Edwards, which shouldn’t be too surprising.
The Georgia product has missed two games this season, and the results were felt on offense—the Wolves averaged just 108.5 points in those contests, and the under hit both times.
That’s exactly what we’ll be shooting for here. Minnesota is missing a massive amount of scoring and does not possess enough depth to account for it. The Jazz might be getting some of their injured players back in the lineup, but they’re still banged up.
All of this roster activity would seem to point to a lower-scoring affair at the Delta Center.
Pick: Under 226.5 (-110, BetMGM)
NBA Betting Record: 16-13, +0.74 unit
Over/Unders: 5-4
Everything Else: 11-9
Each bet graded as if it were to win one unit.
Follow me @MattZylbert on Twitter/X for potentially another pick(s) added there.
