We’re seven weeks away from the 2025 NFL Draft and American sportsbooks are taking their dear sweet time posting their draft betting markets.
After sports betting was legalized, many shops were over the moon about the idea of offering extensive draft menus. At this time in years past, we could wager on individual player Over/Unders, head-to-head markets and specialized options like, “How many quarterbacks go in the first round?”
Thing is, the bettors won.
Lots of the action is sharp and there’s no defense against elite information. I remember being a part of a move on Quay Walker back in 2022. One sportsbook opened his O/U at 40.5 and within days it got blasted down to 33.5.
The Green Bay Packers took Walker at 22.
Multiple Las Vegas executives have labeled the draft as a loss-leader and one told FOX Sports “we get destroyed every year.”
While “destroyed” might be hyperbolic, it helps explain why nobody is in a hurry to post markets.
“[The books] are laying low,” one professional bettor told me over the phone. “You could go as far as to say they’re scared. There’s gamble in these bookmakers, though, and I do think they’ll come to their senses.
“Besides, even if bettors have a good draft, they fire their money back on the NBA and NHL playoffs. Or better yet, they bet baseball parlays.
“Lack of discipline cripples most bankrolls.”
Most books are only offering the first overall pick market, along with which team will make the pick. A couple shops are letting you bet what teams certain players will be drafted by, but it’s slim pickings for the most part.
Unlike last year, when Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams was -2000 to be the first overall pick, there’s a very real debate about No. 1 this year. It is far from a generational quarterback class and, as of now, there doesn’t seem to be a big rush to trade up to take Cam Ward or Shedeur Sanders.
Ward is currently the odds-on favorite (-250) at DraftKings Sportsbook, followed by Penn State edge rusher Abdul Carter (+190), Colorado dual threat Travis Hunter (+750) and Sanders (+1200), Hunter’s college teammate.
If you’re feeling froggy, Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart is 70-1 (don’t do it).
NFL Mock Draft 1.0: Cam Ward, Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter headline first round
Even though Ward is the most common name online and among the most respected mockers, there’s no uniformity at all. You could pull up three different mock drafts, and they could all have a different guy at No. 1.
“Ward is the third favorite this cycle,” the bettor continued. “Hunter and Sanders were both favored during the college season. It’s a volatile market when there’s not a Joe Burrow or Trevor Lawrence or Caleb Williams.
“The year Travon Walker went first, five different guys were favored.”
Is there a bet to make?
“We like Carter,” the bettor admitted. “You can find 2/1 right now and that’s not a bad pop. He’s the type of guy that changes your entire defense. We watched him every game at Penn State this year, and he was the best player on the field.
“He played hurt in the College Football Playoff against Notre Dame and was still dominant for most of the game. The guy was drawing double teams off the edge playing with basically one arm. You don’t see that every day.
“He’s a can’t-miss guy and none of the quarterbacks are.”
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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