Editor’s Note: Throughout the NFL playoffs, Chris Myers and his research team analyze upcoming matchups, while providing news, notes, and nuggets for inside access to the information an NFL broadcaster uses to prepare for calling a game.
SUPER BOWL LIX PREVIEW
And so, the final game of the NFL season is upon us with two worthy contenders for the right to lift the Lombardi Trophy in Super Bowl LIX as the Kansas City Chiefs square off against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday at the Superdome (6:30 p.m. ET on FOX).
The Chiefs have not been dominant each week, but they have a chance to put the capital “D” in dynasty with an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl championship in a season in which they tied the NFL record for total wins with their 18th (as well as the 1984 49ers and the 1985 Bears, who won the Super Bowl, and the 2007 Patriots, who did not).
Andy Reid’s Chiefs played their first of what are five Super Bowls in six seasons in February 2020, also on FOX, and I had the Chiefs as my sideline assignment. The three biggest faces of the team then, as they are to this day, were quarterback Patrick Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce and the man in charge, Reid.
As part of the only broadcast crew to watch their entire practice, you could see the perfect emotional blend that Reid brings to the team — a casual confidence with a relaxed intensity, if such a thing. They had it then going into that game and they pulled out a win against the 49ers.
Mahomes, likable then as he is now, had an almost naive way of telling us in our production meeting that they had the players to overcome and win any way they need to. Now, with more wear and tear, married with children, but still not 30 years of age, his mastery of playing the QB position continues even as his raw statistics have declined with a less explosive supporting cast.
Kelce, rugged with the bravado of a wrestling champion, provides the heartbeat for the offense. Behind the limelight, teammates marvel at his caring nature that brings everyone together in unity and confidence. They know he will do what it takes to win, whether that is catching a bunch of passes or doing the dirty work of blocking.
And then there is Reid, his 12 years at Kansas City now approaching his 14-year run with the Eagles. With 11.6 wins per year, he now has 301 total victories — 273 in the regular season and 28 in the postseason. Don Shula, George Halas and Bill Belichick are the only other coaches to top 300.
Since the start of that 2019 playoff run, the Chiefs are an amazing 16-2 in the postseason, their only losses in Super Bowl LV to the Buccaneers by an uncharacteristic 31-9 score and an overtime loss to Cincinnati the next year in the AFC Championship Game when Mahomes was shockingly intercepted in overtime (on a pass in the hands of Tyreek Hill).
Since then, the Chiefs have won nine straight postseason games, five by exactly three points and only one by more than nine. Kansas City’s last two Super Bowl victories have been by exactly three points, including 38-35 against these Eagles in Super Bowl XLII two years ago.
Nick Sirianni was the coach of Philadelphia then and Jalen Hurts was the quarterback. But the 2024 version has several significant upgrades. The Eagles drafted dominant defensive lineman Jalen Carter two months after that Super Bowl loss. This year they added coordinators Kellen Moore on offense and Vic Fangio on defense. And most importantly, they shrewdly signed generational running back Saquon Barkley.
Behind a dominant line, and with the willingness of Sirianni and Moore to feature him, he has rushed for 2,447 yards. With 30 more yards in the Super Bowl, he will pass Terrell Davis in 1998 for the most in a total season (regular and postseason) and, with 53 will be the first rusher to reach the 2,500-yard mark. At 2,760 scrimmage yards, he is two behind the record of Davis, and with a big game of 240 yards could hit 3,000.
I remember how engaging Sirianni was in our first production meeting together in 2022 — and how impressed I was with the team he formed with his two young and enthusiastic coordinators Shane Steichen on offense and Jonathan Gannon on defense. That trio led the Eagles to the Super Bowl in their only year together, then Steichen and Gannon became head coaches.
Last year, the mix was off and the Eagles floundered. But the hiring of Moore and Fangio has allowed Sirianni to do what he does best, which is motivate and organize the entire team and run the show on gameday.
The presence of Fangio gives the Eagles one of the few defensive minds who can compare with the defensive wizardry of Steve Spagnuolo of the Chiefs.
—
As always with the Super Bowl, there is no shortage of stats and trends that may or may not prove significant.
If you are looking for a Chiefs indicator, we can tell you that:
* Patrick Mahomes is 13-0 in domed stadiums.
* Mahomes is 8-0 vs. Vic Fangio (either as head coach or coordinator).
* With a win, Mahomes would join Tom Brady, Joe Montana and Terry Bradshaw as quarterbacks who started and won four Super Bowls. He would be the first to do so before his 30th birthday.
* This will be Andy Reid’s 45th postseason game as a head coach and sets the all-time record (of course, Bill Belichick is the coach with 44). Nick Sirianni is coaching in his eighth.
* The Chiefs were second in the NFL in third-down conversions (48.4%) and third on fourth down (70.59%).
If you are looking for something that might signify an Eagles win:
* That in this century, whenever one team travels west to the Super Bowl site (this year the Eagles) and one team travels east (the Chiefs) – the team traveling west has won (such as last year when the Chiefs traveled west to Las Vegas to meet the 49ers). It’s happened eight times in all (HT: Jay Cuda).
* All 58 previous Super Bowl winners have forced at least three turnovers during the postseason — but this year’s Chiefs don’t have a single takeaway (HT: Scott Kacsmar).
* Since their Week 5 bye, the Eagles have gone 15-1, posted a plus-27 turnover margin and won their games by an average of 13.8 points (HT: Bill Barnwell). The Chiefs are 13-2, plus-11 in turnovers and have a point differential of +3.4 in the same span.
* If defense wins championships, the Eagles are first in the NFL in yards allowed per game (278.4), pass yards allowed per game (174.2) and second in points allowed per game (17.8).
Some other things to ponder:
* The winner of Super Bowl 59 will become the fourth team to win a record 18 games in a season. Either the 17-1 Chiefs or 17-2 Eagles will join the Super Bowl-winning 1984 49ers and 1985 Bears and the Super Bowl-losing 2007 Patriots.
* The Super Bowl record for rushing yards by a quarterback is 70 — set by Jalen Hurts two years ago. Second is the 64 by Patrick Mahomes in last year’s game.
We could go on, but you get the drift — there is a stat note for every occasion.
But ultimately the game will be decided not by stats, but by Jimmys and Joes, blocking and tackling, turnovers and penalties and the other unpredictable things that occur in every game on every play.
Like others, I certainly see that the Eagles have built a superb total roster led by the best running back in the game running behind perhaps the best line. The Eagles have built a fortress in the trenches, match up well against the Chiefs and could be the rare team (like the 2020 Buccaneers) that dominates Kansas City.
If the Chiefs focus on Barkley, Hurts could be freed up to have a monster day. He passed for 304 yards and ran for 70 more in the Super Bowl two years ago. I could easily see him challenging 100 yards on the ground. He already leads all quarterbacks with nine postseason rushing touchdowns in his career.
So it is important that the Eagles score touchdowns early and keep their running game as the top priority.
But the Chiefs have been challenged before and almost always keep the game manageable.
And if we get late in the fourth quarter in a back-and-forth one-score game, isn’t there one coach and quarterback in this game that almost always get the job done? Would you really bet that this is where they come up short?
Chris Myers is an Emmy Award-winning play-by-play announcer, reporter and studio host for FOX Sports. Follow him on Twitter @The_ChrisMyers.
Get more from National Football League Follow your favorites to get information about games, news and more
