Champions League qualification: Who is most likely to win race and how many spots will Premier League teams have?

The last 16 of this year’s Champions League is already under way and with the Premier League home straight also now in sight, thoughts are turning to qualifying for next year’s tournament.

The race for the top four – or most likely five, but we will come back to that later – is pretty tight, as only nine points separate Nottingham Forest in third and Fulham all the way down in 10th, with as many as 33 points left to play for in some cases.

Liverpool and Arsenal look certain to reach next season’s Champions League and enjoy 23-point and eight-point buffers respectively over fifth spot already. Opta give Liverpool a 100 per cent chance of finishing in the top four, with Arsenal only a tad less likely with a 99.6 per cent chance.

Behind them there are more than half a dozen teams, including Manchester City and Chelsea – but also surprise packages Forest, Brighton & Hove Albion and Bournemouth – in with a shot of making it over the line. With the teams so tightly bunched, things can change very quickly.

Forest boosted their chances by beating fifth-placed Manchester City 1-0 at the City Ground on Saturday to hold on to third place in the table, while Chelsea then moved above the champions into fourth with a 1-0 victory against struggling Leicester City at Stamford Bridge on Sunday.

Meanwhile, Brighton seem to be timing their run for Europe’s premier club competition to perfection, with their last-gasp home win over Fulham on the weekend lifting Fabian Hurzeler’s men up to the heady heights of sixth position, just three points off the top four.

And even the likes of seventh-in-the-table Aston Villa, eighth-placed Bournemouth, Newcastle United in ninth position – who travel to West Ham United on Monday Night Football – and Fulham down in 10th are all in contention for a top-four finish this season.

Will the Premier League have five Champions League spots next season?

It is not certain, but is very likely that England will have at least five spots in next season’s Champions League for the first time since 2017/18, owing to the Premier League’s performance in Europe.

Six of the seven English teams involved in European competition this season made it through to the last 16 of their respective tournaments, with only Man City absent following their Champions League playoff defeat to Real Madrid.

That puts England comfortably at the top of the charts for its European coefficient this season, which is an accumulation of wins and draws picked up by each country’s sides and further points awarded for how far they make it in each continental competition.

The top-two ranked countries at the end of the season will receive an extra Champions League place next season, with Spain and Italy currently battling it out for second spot.

A word of caution, though. England was comfortably top of the UEFA coefficient list for much of last season before a raft of eliminations from European competition saw their hopes of an extra qualifying disappear, confining fifth-placed Tottenham to this season’s Europa League instead of the Champions League.

Should the Premier League’s representatives on the continent find themselves on the wrong end of some more tricky draws, the same thing could happen this time around.

There is another way England could end up with five – or perhaps even six spots. That outcome would occur if either of Tottenham or Manchester United win this season’s Europa League, while also finishing outside of the qualifying spots in the Premier League.

Who is most likely to reach the top four – or five?

There may still be 10 matches to go [for most of the competitors], but Opta has given both Liverpool and Arsenal an almost 100% chance of reaching next season’s Champions League owing to their buffer over the teams below them and the difficulty of their remaining fixtures relative to the other sides in the race.

With that in mind, despite losing on the weekend and now sitting behind both Forest and Chelsea in the table, Man City are still third-favourites to qualify for next season’s tournament, with Pep Guardiola’s side rated as having a 70.3% and an 84.9% chance of finishing in the top four and five respectively.

Nuno Espirito Santo’s Forest have the next-best chance of rounding off the top four with a 57.4% chance, but they are closely followed by Chelsea (36.3%) and Newcastle (18%).

The top five situation looks better for Forest, who have a 76.2% chance of securing that feat, which will likely secure Champions League football next season. But again, Chelsea (59.4%) and Newcastle (34.7%) are also in the mix.

Brighton’s dramatic victory over Fulham on Saturday now sees them with 9.2% and a 21.3% chance of making the top four and five respectively, while Bournemouth’s draw at Tottenham on Sunday has seen their hopes fade, with Opta now giving the south coast side just a 5.7% (top four) and a 14% (top five) chance.

And we still cannot write off the likes of Villa (3% or 8.1%) or Fulham (0.4% or 1.1%), who can both still seal a top four or five finish respectively come May 25.

However, with the Premier League top half so tight, all of that could easily change over the next two and a half months.

Here is the average position of each side’s next five opponents, taking them right into the final throes of the season…

Remaining games between the teams in the mix…

Teams included with a one-per-cent or greater chance of qualifying:

• March 15: Man City vs Brighton
• March 16: Arsenal vs Chelsea – live on Sky Sports
• April 1: Arsenal vs Fulham, Brighton vs Aston Villa
• April 5: Aston Villa vs Nottingham Forest, Fulham vs Liverpool
• April 12: Bournemouth vs Fulham
• April 19: Aston Villa vs Newcastle, Fulham vs Chelsea
• April 26: Man City vs Aston Villa
• May 3: Aston Villa vs Fulham, Brighton vs Newcastle, Chelsea vs Liverpool
• May 10: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa, Liverpool vs Arsenal, Newcastle vs Chelsea
• May 18: Arsenal vs Newcastle, Brighton vs Liverpool, Man City vs Bournemouth
• May 25: Fulham vs Man City, Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea