Let the madness begin!
The 68-team field is all set for the 2025 NCAA Men’s Tournament and the opening-round betting lines are finally starting to settle after about three hours of the odds screen getting lit up like a Christmas tree.
I’ll be posting my favorite first-round bets in the coming days here on FOX Sports, but first, I wanted to hit you with some initial leans, market moves and sharp information on the best damn betting event in America.
Here are 10 early thoughts for March Madness.
Duke is a coin flip to reach San Antonio
The Blue Devils will eventually get Cooper Flagg back, and they probably don’t need to rush him back against American or Mount St. Mary’s. Arizona could present some issues in a potential Sweet 16 game, but it’s difficult to envision any of the teams in the East Region being better than Duke for 40 minutes.
You can lay -115 on a Final Four run at FanDuel.
Wise guys were firing bets in Las Vegas
The South Point Hotel and Casino was taking $10,000 limits at the counter right away. Sportsbook director Chris Andrews has been first in town for years, and always takes the biggest Selection Sunday bets. Business was great, and Grand Canyon and UConn were two of the sharper sides from local professional bettors. Andrews also opened Houston as a 30-point favorite against SIU-Edwardsville and early money showed for the ‘dog.
Shop for the best numbers
Having multiple outs is always ideal, but the ranges are staggering in some of these markets. Take a team like Colorado State. They’re 50/1 to make the Final Four at FanDuel, 75/1 at DraftKings and 125/1 at BetMGM. If you’re a $50 bettor, making that bet at the wrong place could cost you almost $4,000. Whatever bets you decide to place, please get the best of the number.
Free throws matter!
I like betting teams that make their freebies. Oregon, High Point, Texas Tech, Clemson, Michigan State, Arizona, Duke, UConn, Oklahoma and Xavier all shoot better than 76% at the line. Gonzaga checks in at 80%, only to be outdone by Wisconsin, who shoots at a blistering 83% clip.
Avoid conference championship overreactions
Speaking of Wisconsin, I don’t dock them for losing the Big Ten title game to Michigan. Playing four games in four days takes a toll and the Badgers didn’t have anything left in the tank on Sunday afternoon. I think they can still make a run. Wisconsin alumni Dan “Big Cat” Katz likes his squad on Thursday.
“I hate that they put us in the altitude on short rest,” Katz told me. “But Montana played two Power 4 opponents and got blown out both times.”
Seth Davis is bold, but how accurate will he be?
It’s fun to pick a few first-round upsets, but CBS Sports’ Seth Davis throws out a handful, and he’s never short on conviction. Davis likes UC San Diego, High Point, McNeese, Oklahoma, Utah State and Yale. He also likes Colorado State to upset Memphis, but the Rams are favored. We’ll let it slide.
I will turn on my bracket by the weekend
I’ve filled out a bracket for 25 years — one bracket only — and let me assure you I will flip on that thing in a second if need be. Four years ago, I had Illinois making the Final Four, but when the Illini faced Loyola Chicago in the Round of 32, I bet the Ramblers +7 like you wouldn’t believe. It’s important to separate church [bracket] and state [bets] when you’re betting the Tournament.
“The Bear” is looking to fade Louisville
Chris “The Bear” Fallica likes Creighton +2.5.
“I’m curious if [+3] pops by tip,” The Bear Bets host told me. “I’m guessing the world will be on the Cards playing in their home state. The ACC was down bad this year and Louisville really struggled in the non-conference. It was a total turnaround season in Pat Kelsey’s first year, but I think it comes to an end against the Steven Ashworth and Ryan Kalkbrenner combo.”
First-half Unders vs. Full-game Unders
This has been a worthwhile discussion among sharp bettors for years. Have you ever bet an Under in an NCAA Tournament game only to lose in overtime or because one of the teams started a foul fest with 90 seconds left? Barf. Those things just don’t happen at the end of the first half, and it’s probably a strategy you should contemplate this March if you’re playing Unders.
Sticking to my guns on Duke
This is far from a hot take, but I’m not changing my mind. My “Bet Sweats” co-host Joe Ostrowski and I bet the Blue Devils at 6-1 in mid-January. There’s not a more skilled team in the country and even with Flagg’s ankle setback, they’re good enough to go all the way. The SEC is America’s best conference, but the most complete team in the nation hails from the ACC.
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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