A recent analysis by crypto expert CryptoCon, focusing on the Ichimoku Cloud indicator, suggests a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, with a potential rally to $48,000 by early January.
CryptoCon, in his latest analysis, highlighted the reliability of the Weekly Ichimoku Cloud, stating, “The Weekly Ichimoku cloud called our last Bitcoin rise to $38,000 2 months in advance with the cross projected in the future.”
The analyst’s confidence stems from the indicator’s historical performance, which has reportedly signaled previous price movements with considerable accuracy – 11 weeks, 7 weeks, and 13 weeks in advance.
Bitcoin Rally To $48,000 Ahead?
The chart by CryptoCon’s statement delineates four distinct cycles, each marked by significant price events and the Ichimoku Cloud’s predictive crosses. The current cycle, referred to as Cycle 4 spanning from 2023 to 2026, shows a Leading Span Cross – a crucial signal within the Ichimoku Cloud methodology – pointing towards an upward trajectory.
CryptoCon explains, “Now we wait for it to fill its next calls, the completion of our rise and the first target of 43k.” This anticipation is based on the observed durations from the Leading Span Cross to the respective local tops, ranging from 7 to 11 weeks, with an average of 10 weeks. If the pattern holds, the suggested timeline places the completion of this rise in early January.
The analysis further emphasizes the potential for Bitcoin to reach the upper limits of the red section of the Ichimoku Cloud, also known as the “Leading Span B.” According to CryptoCon, “The most conservative level here is 43.2k, but the true top of the red cloud could be labeled as high as 48k.”
It’s worth noting that the Ichimoku Cloud is a comprehensive indicator that provides insights into market momentum, trend direction, and support and resistance levels. The tool is highly regarded for its forward-looking capabilities, especially the “clouds,” which are projected 26 periods ahead of the current price to suggest future potential support or resistance zones.
BTC Price Floor Could Be $41.200 Post Halving
On a related note, Charles Edwards, the founder of Capriole Investments, provided a data-driven perspective on the future of Bitcoin’s price floor. With the next Bitcoin Halving event scheduled in April 2024, Edwards projects significant changes in the mining economics of the leading cryptocurrency.
“In April 2024, Bitcoin’s Electrical Cost, the raw energy cost of mining Bitcoin, will double overnight. This is a certainty,” Edwards declared, drawing attention to the predictable nature of the Halving event which slashes the reward for mining Bitcoin transactions in half. This systemic shift will likely push inefficient mining operations out of the market, as they grapple with suddenly halved revenue against a backdrop of static expenses.
Edwards’ analysis of past Halving events reveals a trend where the Electrical Cost—essentially the floor for Bitcoin’s price—settles at a significantly higher level post-Halving.
“In the last two Halvings, Electrical Cost bottomed at +65% and +50% of the pre-Halving values,” he notes. If this pattern holds true, and the Electrical Cost bottoms at +50% this time around, it is estimated that “the historic price floor of Bitcoin will be $41.2K in just 5 months’ time.”
At press time, BTC was trading in the middle of the range at $37,146. Even though BTC has broken out of the trend channel to the downside, the price is making further higher lows.
Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com