BAKU, Azerbaijan, January 25. President
Emmanuel Macron is a reasonably busy man today. The continued
protests towards the proposed pension reform have already attracted
greater than 1 million folks. Whereas the nation is in chaos, the
President prefers to mission the picture of “business as usual”.
In the meantime, President Macron’s press workplace introduced his assembly
with the Coordinating Council of Armenian Organizations in France
(CCAF) officers, and on 25 January, the President is predicted to
take part in a 200 Euros per particular person annual dinner of CCAF.
In a distinct set of circumstances, it will have been a
non-event, as a result of the assembly and the dinner won’t result in any
important transformation both in home or international
Clearly, CAAF has very restricted impression, to place it very
diplomatically, on the worldwide political processes, and on the
urgent home points as nicely. In precept, the assembly can
cater solely to the pursuits of the ethnically Armenian a part of the
voters. Nonetheless, that is considerably hypocritical contemplating that
President Macron confirmed little inclination to deal with the continued
social protests in France. This can be a crucial facet as a result of
it creates a logical query, why Emmanuel Macron is concerned about
addressing the issues of ethnic Armenian residents of France extra
than the issues of the entire nation? Does one group of residents
deserve preferential therapy?
It is usually attention-grabbing that Macron is now outlined by the
protests. The primary protests towards him befell after he was
introduced the winner in 2017 earlier than he technically assumed workplace.
Yearly he was in workplace, folks protested towards the insurance policies
of the President. Nonetheless, nothing is being accomplished to adequately
tackle the grievances of the French inhabitants. Macron’s home
coverage stays the important thing coherence mechanism explaining the social
mobilization in France throughout the earlier six years.
You will need to perceive that, when it comes to home
insurance policies, Emmanuel Macron retained his workplace not due to his
insurance policies, however regardless of them. The choice was worse, and even
with this consider play, the win was much more difficult than
Macron would have needed.
Antagonism and vainglory primarily based international
The French international coverage was not primarily based on pragmatism within the
earlier years. On reflection, France might have had a significantly
larger say in essentially the most related political issues, ought to it
execute a distinct behavioral sample. Nonetheless, Paris by no means
adopted a set of methods that might maximize the end result of the
political course it pursued.
The antagonism of Paris relating to Azerbaijan relies on two
causes. The primary cause is the impression of the Armenian diaspora on
political life in France. It’s comprehensible that politicians
need to retain a excessive stage of recognition and visibility within the
future, and listening to the issues of the voters is a method
to realize this. For President Macron, this constitutes a low stage
of private threat with a excessive stage of doable reward. In spite of everything,
the president is certain by sure restrictions, and he’s unable to
grant each want, even when he desires to take action. In different phrases, he’s
underneath no obligation to implement any of his guarantees to the
Armenian diaspora, whereas receiving the extent of help that he
needs. Nonetheless, he’s underneath a continuing barrage of
anti-Azerbaijani rhetoric, which distorts and biases his views.
The second cause is the reasonably strained relations between
France and Türkiye. The shortcoming of the French president to pursue
significant relations with Ankara, and the shut stage of relations
between Azerbaijan and Türkiye, results in Emmanuel Macron exhibiting
signs of “tunnel vision” relating to regional affairs.
In different phrases, the way in which President Macron sees the entire dynamic
of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia is by oversimplifying
the difficulty to make the evaluation simpler. It’s a widespread trope, to be
honest as a result of there are such a lot of components in coverage evaluation. By
oversimplifying such a posh situation, France does a disservice to
Azerbaijan, Armenia, and France as nicely.
The “friend of my rival” and the “enemy of my friend” approaches
are what dictate, at the least partly, the place exhibited by Paris
vis-à-vis Baku. It’s counterproductive, irrespective of how one seems at
it. Being guided by the above-mentioned ideas, France has
considerably broken its potential to turn out to be a participant within the South
Caucasus. With the way in which the state of affairs at the moment evolves, French
participation in any means form, or type within the peace-building
course of might be reasonably difficult to be appreciated by
You will need to perceive that assembly folks representing
organizations with little impression and scope throughout instances of disaster
tasks the picture of weak point. Particularly, contemplating that there
are extra urgent points in sight of President Macron.
A fair larger downside relating to the participation of the Head
of State in these occasions is the truth that it offers false hope and
feeds the false and hostile narrative being promoted by a rustic,
which has no alternatives to realize desired international coverage
What does French international coverage imply for the area in
normal and Armenia particularly?
Certain, France is prone to renew its dedication to help
Armenia. One thing significant might even be accomplished.
The entire situation, nevertheless, is a web loss for Armenia. Some 80
years in the past, Europe was in a serious disaster, with the Second World Battle
in full swing. Slowly, however certainly, cooperation between European
states took off, largely because of the launch of the European Coal and
Metal Neighborhood after the following treaty was signed in 1951 in
Paris. A couple of a long time after, financial and political integration
between European nations made the area one of many world financial
facilities. Moreover, the European Coal and Metal Neighborhood turned
the catalyst for nearer integration, which led to the creation of
the European Union.
We aren’t saying or suggesting that related integration
mechanisms will happen within the South Caucasus. Regional
specifics and different variables don’t recommend that a rise in
the commerce at all times results in the creation of supranational unions.
Nonetheless, it’s sure each Azerbaijan and Armenia might have
benefitted from elevated commerce, as it will have had a pacifying
impact and enabled the edges to provoke a smoother means of
By brazenly supporting Armenia, France deprives each Azerbaijan
and Armenia of the chance to benefit from the values and ideas
that France goals to advertise and defend.
The function that France might have performed within the peace-building
between Baku and Yerevan would have been primarily based on values, which is
essentially the most potent weapon within the soft-power arsenal of European
states. Nonetheless, the actions of President Macron instill false hope
in Armenia, restrict the chances accessible to Yerevan, and sluggish
down the general course of.
The entire state of affairs constitutes neither a strategic nor a
tactical shock for Azerbaijan. Baku is already used to the
technique of France. The most effective illustration of Azerbaijan’s skill
to take care of the unfriendly selections of France is the latest
reversal of French efforts to advertise a biased anti-Azerbaijani
decision to the United Nations Safety Council. Once more, the
lack of ability of France to evaluate the state of affairs adequately broken the
Armenian place and tarnished the status of Paris as a
nation supporting the ideas of worldwide regulation.
France is, clearly, welcome to form its international coverage the
means decision-makers in Paris see match, nevertheless, it’s the
duty of Armenia to acknowledge that not every little thing accomplished by
President Macron is in the perfect pursuits of Yerevan. By clinging
to the concepts contradicting the established norms, in addition to the
imaginative and prescient of the world rooted in unjustified ambitions, Armenia loses
the alternatives that would have been higher explored.