The goal with this 2025 NASCAR Cup Series predictions piece is to make sure that it’s not as newsworthy in 2025 as it was in 2024.
Enter Joey Logano. The reigning champion couldn’t help but remind everyone that last year, this piece didn’t have him in the playoffs.
Not only did he make the playoffs, he won the whole dang thing.
The goal isn’t to get all these picks right; that would be way too difficult to do. It’s just trying to avoid a major L.
Welp, here we go.
Keselowski is strong at these tracks and with the addition of a third RFK car and a Haas Factory Team alliance, he potentially has more drivers who will help him. But the Daytona 500 hasn’t been kind to him, as he has just one top-10 finish in his last 10 Daytona 500s and failed to finish seven of his last 10 races here.
Why is that?
His biggest issue could be that he has had a knack of being overly aggressive at these tracks and that likely deters others from working with him. This might seem like a lukewarm prediction. But it’s the Daytona 500, so there’s a little bit of rolling the dice involved.
Regular-season champion
Kyle Larson
He was my pick last year and possibly would have won if he had not missed the 600 at Charlotte. He led the most laps (17.45 percent of the laps with 1,700 laps led, which was 555 more laps than his nearest competitor) and the most miles (14.11 percent of the miles, 363 more miles than anyone else) and there’s no reason to think he won’t this year.
Playoff participants
Twelve drivers who were in the playoffs last year will make it this year: Joey Logano (did you really think I was going to leave him out again?), Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Alex Bowman, Chase Briscoe, William Byron, Chase Elliott, Ty Gibbs, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Kyle Larson and Tyler Reddick.
Then these four will get in after missing last year: Chris Buescher, Kyle Busch, Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace.
The four drivers who made it last year who won’t get in this year: Harrison Burton and Martin Truex Jr. are not racing full time in Cup this year. Winners from last year, Austin Cindric and Daniel Suarez, will get shut out — at least in the regular season.
In fact, I predict that Shane van Gisbergen wins a regular-season race but that there will be 17 regular-season winners, and he’ll be the lowest in points.
Championship 4
Ryan Blaney, William Byron, Denny Hamlin and Chase Elliott
Yes, this is where I dissed Logano in the predictions last year. And how do I not include Larson? Las Vegas opens the semifinal round, and that is a great track for him. However, I don’t like that he potentially will have to perform at Talladega and Martinsville in that round.
Champion
William Byron
He hit a rut last year after such a strong start. He’s still relatively young and appears focused. Rudy Fugle will find a way to get the best out of him at Phoenix. And I picked Byron last year at the start of the season (he at least made the Championship 4), so I’d like to think I was just a year too early.
Rookie of the year
Shane van Gisbergen
It is between van Gisbergen and Riley Herbst, and with SVG’s ability on road courses, he gets the edge in this category.
Comeback Driver of the Year
Noah Gragson
Gragson had a miserable rookie season in 2023 when he ran horribly at Legacy Motor Club and then lost his ride after liking a racially insensitive tweet. He had a respectable year last year at SHR, where he finished 24th in the standings. Now at Front Row, he still has the same crew chief in Drew Blickensderfer and a top-20 finish in the standings is attainable and wouldn’t be a surprise.
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
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