Michael Cohen
College Football and College Basketball Writer
John Fanta
College Basketball Broadcaster and Reporter
The countdown to Selection Sunday is officially on.
With the final week of the regular season underway and conference tournaments just around the corner, the announcement of the 68-team NCAA Tournament field is quickly approaching, set to take place March 16.
But first, there are plenty of big-time matchups set to get underway this weekend, highlighted by a pair of top-25 rivalry games between Auburn and Alabama (2:30 p.m. ET on Saturday) and Michigan State and Michigan (Noon ET on Sunday).
Which rivalry matchup should college basketball fans be paying attention to, and is there a team currently listed on the NCAA Tournament bubble that could make some noise in the Big Dance?
FOX Sports college basketball writers John Fanta and Michael Cohen are here to address that and more as we enter the final weekend of the college hoops regular season.
The final weekend of the regular season features an incredible slate of games, including plenty of rivalry matchups. Which matchup this upcoming weekend are you most excited about, and why?
John Fanta: Any time that we get to see college basketball’s Iron Bowl this season equals must-see hoops. And the scene in The Jungle on Saturday should be wild for Johni Broome & Co. as the Tigers set aim on a regular-season sweep of Alabama. What I’m curious to see is if Nate Oats’ Crimson Tide team can make a pre-championship week statement of some sort on the road and show why they are still a team more than worthy of cutting down the nets in April.
When the teams met just shy of three weeks ago in Tuscaloosa in the 1 vs. 2 showdown, Broome had 19 points and 14 rebounds, while the Tigers shut down Alabama’s perimeter attack, holding the Tide to 5-of-26 from deep in a 94-85 win. Will Mark Sears be able to answer the bell on Saturday? Auburn really made him uncomfortable in the first meeting between the teams as the senior guard was held to 4-of-17 from the floor and 2-of-11 from beyond the arc. Alabama has to get in more of a rhythm on that end of the floor and the defense, which has been better in the back half of the season, ranking 36th in KenPom efficiency, has to show up and make Chad Baker-Mazara, Tahaad Pettiford and the Auburn guards work for what they get.
I know the Tigers are well-positioned for the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament and that they’ve already won the SEC regular-season crown, but this rivalry is big-time and these are Final Four-caliber teams. I think you’ll see them both give a full effort, and I’m curious to see if Alabama can make some adjustments on both ends, but particularly if they can find a way to get their perimeter game back in rhythm. That could very well start with getting stops.
Michael Cohen: The rematch between No. 7 Alabama and No. 1 Auburn is certainly the headlining act for what should be an excellent weekend of college basketball leading into conference tournament action. When these teams met a few weeks ago, on Feb. 15 in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, it was a matchup between the top two teams in the AP Poll, with the visiting Tigers scoring an impressive 94-85 win. And even though Alabama has stumbled twice more since then — first in a 110-98 road loss to Missouri; then in a 79-76 road loss to Tennessee that ended on a 3-point buzzer beater — few people would question the Crimson Tide’s standing as one of the five or 10 best teams in the country, such is the quality of this year’s SEC. A road win at Auburn, which has already clinched the SEC title, coupled with a strong run in the SEC Tournament could still vault Alabama into contention for a No. 1 seed in March Madness. There is plenty at stake.
But let’s not overlook another rematch that will be happening a day later, on Sunday afternoon in East Lansing, Michigan, when No. 8 Michigan State hosts No. 17 Michigan in a game that should have Big Ten title implications — pending a few results between now and then. The showdown at the Breslin Center is far more important for the Wolverines than it is for the Spartans, who have already proved they’re the best team in the conference with a string of five consecutive wins against Illinois, Purdue, Michigan, Maryland and Wisconsin. But for Michigan and head coach Dusty May, who has wildly exceeded expectations in his first season, things might be starting to wobble. The Wolverines bounced back from their loss to Michigan State with consecutive wins over Nebraska and Rutgers — though neither performance was anywhere near convincing — before getting pounded by the Illini in an embarrassing 20-point home loss last weekend. Now they’ll host No. 13 Maryland on Wednesday night before the rivalry game to end the regular season. If those results don’t go Michigan’s way, May & Co. would be staring at a disappointing run-in that includes four losses in six games ahead of the Big Ten Tournament. It would be a deflating end to an otherwise enthralling campaign.
Johni Broome and Cooper Flagg appear to be in a two-man race when it comes to national player of the year honors. Who should win the award, and why?
Michael: Until a few weeks ago, Broome would have gotten my vote for Naismith College Player of the Year as the single-best player on the single-best team in the country. That he leads the Tigers in scoring (18 points per game), rebounding (10.7 per game), assists (3.3 per game) and blocks (2.4 per game) speaks to how wide-ranging Broome’s influence really is on a team that has five players averaging double-figure scoring and a sixth chipping in 9.9 points per game. The fifth-year senior, who has already posted 17 double-doubles with points and rebounds, is enjoying the best season of his collegiate career while guiding Auburn to its first SEC title since 2022 and just its third title of the 21st century — all of which belong to head coach Bruce Pearl. Broome and the Tigers should receive a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and are strong contenders, if not the favorites, to earn the top overall seed.
In almost any other season, Broome would be a shoo-in for player of the year. But the continued ascent of Duke superstar Cooper Flagg, a true freshman, has vaulted the presumptive No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA Draft above his more experienced counterpart. Despite the sky-high expectations that surrounded Flagg as the top overall recruit in the country, he’s delivered a masterful rookie campaign with averages of 19.6 points, 7.5 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.6 steals and 1.2 blocks — all of which lead the Blue Devils. His offensive rating of 125.1 ranks third nationally among players who have used at least 28% of possessions this season, trailing only Oscar Cluff of South Dakota State (129.5) and Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones of UC San Diego (126.9). And defensively, where Flagg has impressed NBA executives with his relentless effort and positional versatility, he’s second in the country for Defensive Bayesian Performance Rating (4.53) behind Joseph Tugler of Houston (4.92). Flagg’s incredible output has translated to 23 wins in Duke’s last 24 games and a probable No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
John: Cooper Flagg has locked up this award. According to researcher Jared Berson, when the 6-foot-9 Flagg posted 28 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, three blocks and two steals in Monday’s 93-60 rout of Wake Forest, “The Maine Event” became the first college player over the last 15 seasons to tally 25 points, seven rebounds, seven assists and multiple steals and blocks in a game against a high-major opponent. The last player to accomplish the feat? Evan Turner for Ohio State in 2010 against Penn State in his Wooden Award season.
Flagg is the unicorn of the sport and the surest thing as a No. 1 pick in the NBA Draft that we’ve seen at least since Zion Williamson, if not Anthony Davis. Flagg isn’t done making history either. We have never seen a college freshman lead their team in all major categories and reach the NCAA Tournament – never! Ben Simmons did it, but LSU didn’t make the Big Dance. Flagg will do much more than make the tournament – he could very well win it!
What he does for Duke on the defensive end of the floor is invaluable, swarming whoever he’s guarding and using his length and 7-1 wingspan to cover a ton of ground and be a rim protector in the process. On the offensive end, Flagg’s jumper has evolved and, over the last six games, we’ve seen why he is such an elite playmaker. He has totaled 30 assists and just three turnovers, delivering some incredible dimes when he’s not attacking the rim with ease. While Broome has had a fantastic campaign and deserves runner-up, the amount Flagg does for this second-ranked Duke team gives him the edge. His impact on a game is limitless.
Which team currently listed on the bubble in Mike DeCourcy’s latest NCAA Tournament projections has the chance to make the most noise in this year’s NCAA Tournament?
John: I’ll go with a team that is 5-0 since Feb. 12 and ranks in the top 15 of the Torvik analytics system. I’m talking about Xavier. The Musketeers are 11-7 in the Big East and own wins over Marquette, UConn and Creighton, giving them 19 on the season. Provided they handle their business on Wednesday at Butler and Saturday at home against Providence, Xavier will have 21 wins.
Now, Xavier’s NET is not great, but the Musketeers are still sitting in the top 50 and this is a team that can be really dangerous with Ryan Conwell and Dante Maddox making perimeter shots, Dailyn Swain attacking the rim and sixth-year star Zach Freemantle leading the way at the age of 24. When they’re engaged on the defensive end and not letting their lack of size cost them on possessions, they’re in the top 10 in America in fast-break points and 3-point percentage. The Musketeers have a lead guard in Dayvion McKnight to keep them organized and a core that’s fought through early struggles to win 10 of their last 13 games. The duo of Conwell and Freemantle are a tough cover for any defense, with the Indiana State transfer shooting 40% from 3 and averaging 16 per game, while Freemantle just embodies physicality and toughness. Watch out for the X-men at Madison Square Garden next week in the Big East Tournament. They made the championship game two years ago and have the pedigree to be a dark horse this time around.
Michael: Could Baylor make a run in the NCAA Tournament? Five months ago, this would have seemed like a ridiculous choice considering the Bears were ranked No. 8 in the preseason AP Poll. Head coach Scott Drew put together the sixth-best recruiting class in the country when he added noteworthy transfers Norchad Omier from Miami (No. 5 transfer, No. 1 PF) and Jeremy Roach from Duke (No. 11 transfer, No. 3 PG) to a loaded freshman class that included five-star high school prospects VJ Edgecombe (No. 4 overall, No. 1 SF) and Rob Wright (No. 28 overall, No. 1 PG) — all of whom now average double figures and have become the team’s four leading scorers.
But early non-conference losses to Gonzaga (away), Tennessee (neutral) and UConn (away) sunk Baylor to a 5-3 start from which it largely never recovered. The Bears won four straight games from Dec. 9-31 in what seemed like a proverbial righting of the ship, but they’ve failed to win more than two games in a row since, ultimately sinking to an 8-9 record in the Big 12 following a narrow road loss to Cincinnati late last month. Their warts have included giving up too many offensive rebounds (31% of missed shots, 248th overall); subpar perimeter defense (opponents shoot 35.7% from beyond the arc, 288th overall); and failing to generate enough turnovers (opponents have a 60.9% assist rate on made baskets, 347th overall).
Yet there’s no denying the Bears’ talent and experience. Edgecombe, who averages 14.7 points per game, will be a top-10 pick in this year’s NBA Draft. Omier, who leads the team at 15.7 points per game, helped lead Miami to the Final Four two seasons ago. Roach, who is fourth in scoring at 10.7 points per game, guided Duke to the Final Four as a junior. And the team’s underlying metrics are still quite strong, even with an 18-12 record entering the regular-season finale later this week: Baylor is 30th in KenPom, 31st in Torvik and 28th according to EvanMiya. The only question is whether the pieces will ever come together for more than a game or two.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him at @John_Fanta.
Michael Cohen covers college football and basketball for FOX Sports with an emphasis on the Big Ten. Follow him on Twitter @Michael_Cohen13.
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