Chinese GP: McLaren see Mercedes threat amid F1 grid's expected strategy and tyre challenges for race

After a chaotic season-opener in Melbourne, F1 is set for another unpredictable race in Sunday’s Chinese Grand Prix.

Oscar Piastri starts from pole on the front row alongside George Russell, with last year’s title protagonists Lando Norris and Max Verstappen in behind on a track that has been chewing up tyres all weekend.

Track position proved to be crucial in Saturday’s Sprint, which was won by Lewis Hamilton, so it could be a feisty opening lap with plenty of opportunities to overtake in the first half of the lap.

Hamilton starts in fifth alongside Ferrari team-mate Charles Leclerc and if the seven-time world champion’s Sprint pace is anything to go by, he will be in contention for victory in the Grand Prix itself too.

To add to the presence of a host of big names at the front of the grid, the Shanghai International Circuit is notoriously one of the year’s most punishing on a car’s front tyres and, with degradation expected to be high, Pirelli are forecasting drivers each having to make two pit stops.

“It makes for an interesting race,” said Sky Sports F1’s Karun Chandhok of the likely strategy permutations.

“If you have a slam-dunk one-stop and you’re spending a lot of time managing it, it’s not a very exciting race.

“With a two-stop race and people running different tyres at different times, we might see drivers starting on the hard tyres and go long, it depends but it makes things interesting for the strategists and drivers. We want to see variance.”

Polesitter Piastri said: “I think just making sure your tyres survive is the biggest thing. I think we saw this morning that those who could look after their tyres – the people who could manage the best one way or another were the quickest.

“I think it’s the most degradation we’ve probably seen and the most graining we’ve seen in a long time.”

Who are the biggest threat to McLaren?

While the on-off rain complicated matters for them in last Sunday’s season-opener, McLaren were clearly the class of the field in Melbourne, although the picture has not been anywhere near as clear cut in Shanghai despite Piastri delivering them pole.

Melbourne victor Norris, who qualified sixth and then finished eighth in the Sprint, has made several small but costly errors through the weekend with the MCL39’s handling proving difficult, but he still thinks he and Piastri should again enjoy strong race pace.

“The car is good, it’s quick, not easy but that’s the price you pay sometimes. As long as we keep things clean and don’t squabble too hard, we can have a good race,” he said.

“We saw how tricky it was in the Sprint to look after the front tyres, knowing when to push, how much to push. A lot of question marks that we won’t know until we start driving [on Sunday].

“Tyre management here is not like normal tyre management. It’s graining, not temperature.

“It’s different to Australia where it was just about managing the inters and the temperatures. This is how much you can save the front tyres.”

And Norris pinpointed one rival who he believes are proficient in that area.

“Mercedes have been strong here in the past,” he said.

“Las Vegas, for instance, they looked after the front tyres very well, so this is one of their strengths and probably why they were quick today.

“I just need to focus on myself and go out and do a good job.”

Russell raised eyebrows on Thursday when he suggested McLaren’s 2025 car should win every race this season and that the reigning constructors’ champions’ current advantage over the field was even greater than the one Red Bull enjoyed in 2023, when the team won 21 of 22 races.

Two days on, however, and Russell split the two papaya cars on the Shanghai grid and finished just 0.082s away from Piastri on pole thanks to a superb final lap of Q3.

“I know when we bring it together and I believe myself, when it’s there, we are as good as anybody,” said Russell, who finished fourth in the Sprint.

“I don’t think McLaren quite optimised it. I don’t think anybody expected to get ahead of a McLaren, so P3 would have been a good result, P2 is great.”

He added: “McLaren are still favourites so we need to be realistic. We will try to get ahead of Oscar at the beginning and see where it takes us.”

What about Verstappen and the Ferraris?

Remaining omnipresent at the front of the grid so far this season despite ongoing challenges with Red Bull’s car is world champion Max Verstappen, who qualified fourth after finishing third in the earlier Sprint.

But the Dutchman all but ruled out opening his victory account for 2025 here.

Asked how he can win the race, Verstappen told Sky Sports F1: “If they all retire in front of me! We are not fast enough.

“I feel comfortable, confident, but sometimes my input is not what I’m getting back from the car and that makes it quite difficult to nail every corner. Then in the race, when it’s not doing that, you’re degrading your tyres harder than cars around you and that’s not ideal.

“I probably feel the best shape again driving-wise compared to even the years before. I feel I go into Qualifying, I’m nailing the laps and doing a good job, the races so far we have executed everything we can.

“But when the race pace is lacking there’s not much you can do.”

Ferrari, then, could be the greater threat to the grid’s top three – particularly based on the SF-25’s tyre management in the 19-lap Sprint.

After set-up changes ahead of qualifying, Hamilton said his car became “tricker” to drive over a single lap compared to earlier in the day as the wind picked up and the car balance became more inconsistent. He will now hope those tweaks prove beneficial for the longer race distance.

“Qualifying was tougher and we didn’t get the most out of the car over a lap today, but clearly we have the potential and now it’s about working hard to make sure we can consistently unlock that pace across a weekend,” said Hamilton.

“The taste of winning has made us all even hungrier and although it will be tough tomorrow, we know the work we need to do.”

Sky Sports F1’s live Chinese GP schedule

Sunday March 23

• 2.40am: F1 Academy Race 2
• 5.30am: Chinese GP build-up: Grand Prix Sunday*
• 7am: THE CHINESE GRAND PRIX*
• 9am: Chinese GP reaction: Chequered flag*
• 10am: Ted’s Notebook*

*Also on Sky Sports Main Event

Formula 1 is in Shanghai this week for the first Sprint weekend of the season at the Chinese GP, live on Sky Sports F1. Stream Sky Sports with NOW – No contract, cancel anytime