There’s no sugarcoating it: This is the New York Yankees‘ doomsday scenario.
Gerrit Cole will undergo Tommy John surgery on his ailing right elbow, the Yankees announced on Monday. The veteran ace will miss the entirety of the 2025 season and a solid chunk of the 2026 season, leaving a monumental void in the Yankees rotation just a couple of weeks before the team is poised to defend its American League pennant. Cole will undergo the procedure on Tuesday at Cedars-Sinai Kerlan-Jobe Institute in Los Angeles.
“I have a lot left to give, and I’m fully committed to the work ahead,” Cole wrote in an Instagram post. “I’ll attack my rehab every day and support the 2025 Yankees each step of the way. I love this game, I love competing, and I can’t wait to be back on the mound — stronger than ever.”
The fire alarm went off last Thursday when Cole allowed six earned runs, including a pair of home runs, across just 2.2 innings in his second spring training start of the year. Though his slight drop in velocity wasn’t too concerning, Cole’s complete lack of command and complaints of alarming pain signaled that something was amiss.
Initial imaging suggested Cole would need surgery for his elbow and, over the weekend, a trip to Los Angeles for a second opinion confirmed it. This is the second consecutive year Cole, 34, will miss significant time due to his right elbow. He dealt with elbow inflammation last March, but was able to overcome the nerve-related injury through rest and rehab before rejoining the Yankees in June and staying fully healthy through their run to the Fall Classic. But lightning won’t strike twice for the Yankees and their ace.
It’s a devastating blow to the Yankees rotation and an enormous hit to the club’s chances of ending its 16-year championship drought. Cole will be nearly 36 years old by the time his Tommy John rehab is complete — a tedious recovery timeline of anywhere from 14 to 16 months — and it’s impossible to forecast how effective he’ll be by that point. In December 2019, the Yankees signed Cole to a nine-year, $324 million deal, the largest contract ever given to a pitcher at that time, with the expectation that he would help deliver at least one title in that span. Now, it’s fair to question whether the rest of New York’s pitching staff has the depth and talent needed to return to October.
“From the time I first dreamed of wearing the Yankees uniform, my goal has always been to help bring a World Series championship to New York,” Cole wrote on Instagram. “That dream hasn’t changed — I still believe in it, and I’m more determined than ever to achieve it.”
The Yankees rotation now includes Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Clarke Schmidt, Marcus Stroman, and Will Warren. Fried, who accepted the largest contract ever issued to a left-handed pitcher (eight years, $218 million) over the winter, will become the Yankees’ de-facto ace without Cole. But, after a myriad of recent injury issues, he was already facing a ton of pressure to stay healthy this year. Now, in addition to staying injury-free, the spotlight will be on Fried, Rodon, and Schmidt to be utterly dominant. The Yankees simply cannot afford another blow to their pitching staff if they hope to keep their World Series dreams intact.
Right-hander Luis Gil, the AL’s 2024 Rookie of the Year, is set to miss at least three months of the season with a high-grade lat strain. Gil did a spectacular job making us forget about Cole’s elbow injury last year when he jumped into the rotation and recorded a 2.03 ERA in 14 starts while the ace was sidelined. The Yankees would love another surprise performance from an up-and-comer in their system and the 25-year-old Warren could very well be the answer. Warren has allowed two earned runs in 11.2 innings (1.54 ERA) so far this spring. Other rotation options in Yankees camp include 38-year-old Carlos Carrasco and former Braves right-hander Allan Winans.
Really, the Yankees are in no position to cross their fingers and hope for the best from the arms they have in-house. This is the time for general manager Brian Cashman to be aggressive on the trade market — yes, it will sting to get rid of high-ceiling prospects — if only because the Yankees have to try to win a championship while Aaron Judge is in his prime. The Yankees slugger is entering his age-33 season this year, and the club is already extremely careful with his usage due to his own injury concerns, so any year he stays healthy and plays a full season is considered a win for the organization. Judge, fresh off his second-career MVP award, should be surrounded by elite talent on both sides of the ball in order for the Yankees to give themselves the best chance to capitalize while he’s in his prime.
Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner has pushed this year’s payroll past $300 million, but it’s clear from the series of injury hits that he could’ve spent more money on roster depth. Designated hitter Giancarlo Stanton is sidelined with tennis elbows in both arms and season-ending surgery is on the table. DJ LeMahieu was slated to be the Yankees’ starting third baseman before he went down with a calf strain. Even before LeMahieu’s latest injury, the Yankees entered spring training with an obvious lack of dependable talent at the hot corner, and it ultimately went unaddressed. Without blockbuster trades, the Yankees may have to spend to fix their roster holes, but there are hardly any solid starting pitchers still available through free agency this close to Opening Day.
Ultimately, there’s no replacing a vintage workhorse like Cole. The six-time All-Star and 2023 Cy Young winner is ranked second in baseball with 1,954 innings pitched since his 2013 rookie season. A lifelong Yankees fan, Cole is a throwback frontline starter who has anchored the rotation since he joined the Bronx Bombers in 2020. In the Yankees’ spring training from hell, the outlook of trying to win without him — for the next couple of years — is just the latest nightmare.
Deesha Thosar is a MLB reporter and columnist for FOX Sports. She previously covered the Mets for four years as a beat reporter for the New York Daily News. Follow her on Twitter at @DeeshaThosar.
Gerrit Cole
New York Yankees
Major League Baseball
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