Liverpool can go 10 points clear in Premier League title race at Aston Villa but history shows it could still turn

Liverpool find themselves in a commanding position in the Premier League title race. Few teams have fumbled it from here. But it has been done.

Ten points could be the gap between leaders Liverpool and Arsenal if Arne Slot’s side win at Aston Villa on Wednesday night, albeit with the Gunners having played a game less.

Defeat at Villa Park, however, would raise the spectre of an historic collapse with a trip to Man City on Sunday and the visit of Newcastle a few days later.

When you consider the striker crisis engulfing Arsenal after Kai Havertz’s season-ending injury and Liverpool’s terrific form such an outcome feels unlikely.

But there are examples of teams in very similar scenarios that have thrown it all away from even unlikelier positions. Here we look back at some of the greatest collapses.

Newcastle in 1995/96

• Lead of 12 points after 23 games.
• Eventual champions: Manchester United

“I will love it if we beat them.”

Kevin Keegan’s meltdown on Sky Sports after Sir Alex Ferguson’s provocations is the stuff of legend in the pantheon of Premier League past. His Newcastle side handed Manchester United the league that season.

But the truth is, Newcastle’s title bid had unravelled long before Keegan’s rant.

Twenty-three games in, two ahead of where we are now, Newcastle led Manchester United, third at the time, by 12 points. Ferguson’s side finished as champions by five points.

Newcastle had lost just three games in their first 23 games but finished the season with five defeats in 15 matches. At the exact stage we are now, Keegan’s side led by nine points.

Liverpool boss Slot, whose side have lost once in 25 so far, may well have to follow Keegan in hiding behind the advertising hoardings at Anfield if his team go the same way.

Man Utd in 1997/98

• 12-point lead after 22 games played
• Eventual champions: Arsenal

“He’s a novice – he should keep his opinions to Japanese football.”

Ferguson’s ill-fated criticism of Arsene Wenger in April 1997 would come back to bite him the following season as the Frenchman claimed his first league title as Arsenal boss.

Wenger was fresh to English football at the time having joined midway through the previous season from Japanese side Nagoya Grampus Eight.

He inspired a huge comeback in his first full campaign as Arsenal pipped United to the title despite trailing by 12 points heading into their final 17 matches of the season. The Gunners had played a game fewer at the time.

United subsequently lost four of their next nine league games, while Arsenal went unbeaten for 16 league games, winning 10 in a row, to turn the title race.

Ferguson’s team were nine points clear of Arsenal following 26 games in 1998, the same number of games Liverpool will have played after Wednesday, albeit United had played two more games than the Gunners.

Man Utd in 2011/12

• Eight-point lead with six games to go
• Eventual champions: Manchester City

“Aguerooooo!”

Manchester City won their first Premier League title in such dramatic fashion that the scale of Manchester United’s capitulation that season is often forgotten.

United went eight points clear with six games to go after a 2-0 win over QPR at Old Trafford – their eighth in a row – on April 8 as City lost 1-0 at Arsenal. Their demise was unfathomable.

A 1-0 defeat at Wigan, who had never taken a point off a Ferguson team, a 4-4 home draw against Everton after throwing away a two-goal lead and a 1-0 defeat at City followed.

City nearly handed it back to them on the final day against QPR at the Etihad. But we all know what happened in the dying minutes as Sergio Aguero rescued his team.

Ferguson and his players learned their news from the jeering Sunderland crowd. They had won 1-0, but the damage had been done at Wigan and Everton.

Liverpool in 2018/19

• Seven-point lead after 20 games played
• Eventual champions: Manchester City

It is difficult to describe this title race as one that was thrown away by Liverpool. They finished on 97 points, enough to win the league any other year bar one in Premier League history at the time.

But Jurgen Klopp’s side did have a seven-point lead over City at one stage until Pep Guardiola’s side closed the season with 14 consecutive wins to win the league by a single point.

John Stones’ incredible goal-line clearance in Man City’s 2-1 win over Liverpool in December of that season essentially proved to be the difference. The ball was 11mm from crossing the line.

Liverpool were unbeaten after 20 games, with three draws. They recorded one defeat and four more draws in the final 18 games to lose out to City.

Arsenal in 2022/23

• Eight-point lead with nine games to be played
• Eventual champions: Manchester City

Arsenal’s unlikely title charge looked on at the start of April 2023, just a year on from missing out on Champions League qualification to their rivals Tottenham.

Mikel Arteta’s young side led champions Manchester City by eight points, albeit with a game in hand, with just seven games left of their season.

Arsenal let the title slip through their hands by losing three games, as many as they had up to that point, in that final stretch. In fact, Arsenal dropped as many points in that run as they had in the previous 29 games.

City, meanwhile, went on a 12-game winning run, including a dominant 4-1 victory over Arsenal at the Etihad, to capitalise.