MLB Over/Under Best Bet: Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners, April 1 | Deadspin.com

Oof, rough call last night on Emerson Hancock. But that won’t deter us from remaining in the Pacific Northwest for the middle matchup of this three-game set between the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners.

Much more proven starters will be on the mound for this one, with Logan Gilbert receiving the ball for the home side following a sterling performance in his first career Opening Day assignment. In that affair, Gilbert completely stifled the Athletics en route to notching seven shutout innings and striking out eight. He scattered only a pair of hits, too.

To me, this is an obvious sign that Gilbert is building on his first career All-Star campaign of a year ago, one that also saw him finish sixth in the American League Cy Young Award voting.

If the iron is going to consistently strike hot for Gilbert, it’s in the first half of the campaign — in which he’s always been significantly better during each of his prior four years in the majors.

Throughout his time as a big leaguer, the 27-year-old has registered a 26-15 record to go with a 3.07 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and .211 batting average against in 68 starts prior to the Midsummer Classic hiatus. After that, though, he’s 15-15 with a 4.26 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and .244 BAA in 54 starts.

True, Detroit’s offense fared pretty well last night, plating a nine-spot for the evening. However, most of that damage came in the first inning off the aforementioned Hancock, and they’re going to have a far bigger challenge opposite the Mariners’ ace.

Casey Mize will be facing off with Gilbert, and while he may not be nearly as proven as his counterpart, there should be no denying that the former No. 1 overall draft pick has exhibited the makings of a successful top-half-of-the-rotation starter.

The problem is, though, that came four years ago in Mize’s only full year with a normal offseason at the major league level. In that 2021 season, the Auburn product churned out a very respectable 3.71 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

Unfortunately, Mize would soon fall victim to Tommy John surgery, not to mention an ensuing back surgery, and hasn’t really been able to get his full footing back — until now.

So, is the breakout about to happen?

I certainly think so.

Mize showcased a very impressive spring, showing off two new variations of his slider that he developed while working on his craft at Driveline Baseball in the offseason. He’s throwing harder now as well and was drawing a noticeably higher whiff rate through February and March.

The tools are in place for him to succeed at this level and, as important as anything, he’s fully healthy. Mize also appears to be rolling with a chip on his shoulder after the Tigers curiously left him off the postseason roster in favor of Keider Montero. Come on!

As has already been highlighted a couple of times in this column, the Mariners still leave something to be desired at the plate. This is the right spot — and in mostly a pitcher’s park — for Mize to show off what he’s got now.

Pick: UNDER 7 (-120, BetMGM)

2025 MLB Betting Record: 3-2-1, +0.65 unit
Over/Unders: 2-2-1
Props: 1-0
Yesterday’s Result: Tigers-Mariners Under 7.5 (loss)

Each bet is graded as if it were to win one unit unless otherwise stated.

Follow me on Twitter/X @MattZylbert for potential additional picks.