Just when it looked like John Calipari was heading toward a complete letdown in his first season at the helm in Arkansas, the Razorbacks have a pulse after back-to-back Quad 1 road wins over Kentucky and Texas.
The win over the Wildcats — an all-timer for Calipari in his return to Rupp Arena — saw Adou Thiero go off for 21 points, while the backcourt duo of D.J. Wagner and Johnell Davis combined for 35 points and 14 assists, with just two turnovers. To knock down 13 total 3s on the night and package together their best performance of the season in Lexington was really impressive, and it appears to have given this team a much-needed jolt of confidence.
[Read more: John Calipari’s Revenge: Hall of Famer gets last laugh in return to Rupp Arena]
The biggest key for the Hogs as of late might be the emergence of Davis. The FAU transfer, whose scoring was cut in half from last year up until recently, has tallied at least 18 points in three consecutive games and totaled 24 points on 7-of-15 shooting from the floor and 4-of-8 shooting from 3-point range in Wednesday’s 78-70 win over Texas.
With four-star freshman Boogie Fland out for the year with a thumb injury — as tough as that is — it does feel like roles are more defined for Arkansas and the duo of Davis and Wagner aren’t battling for touches or time with anyone else. And Thiero has had a career season with seven 20-plus point games and eight straight in double figures.
Arkansas’ résumé has risen to 44th in the NET, 43rd in KenPom and 52nd in KPI, a computer-generated metric that the committee incorporates that ranks college basketball teams by assigning a value to each game they play. With a trio of wins over top-30 NET teams, the Razorbacks do have positives, but they need more. This is the best part about the SEC if you’re on the bubble: there are a slew of games that shouldn’t hurt you too badly if you lose and a bunch of opportunities to continue to move the needle. The next five games for Arkansas: Saturday vs. No. 3 Alabama, Wednesday vs. LSU, Feb. 15 @ No. 10 Texas A&M, Feb. 19 @ No. 1 Auburn and Feb. 22 vs. No. 15 Missouri.
LSU is a must-win game, and coupling that with two wins could get Arkansas on the right side of the bubble — if not just outside it. But with nine games left before the SEC Tournament and a pretty manageable home stretch after that gauntlet of five games, the Hogs have a chance to hear their name called in a season where it felt hard to believe we’d ever hear those words at one point. They entered the week as Mike Decourcy’s fifth team out of his tournament field.
Let’s get to nine other teams on the bubble and in the fight on the road to March Madness:
North Carolina (Currently in Mike DeCourcy’s First Four Out)
Hubert Davis’ Tar Heels are tracking toward missing the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three years, and if that happens, the hot seat is going to warm up quickly. Why? Because this is North Carolina. The standards are not to find a way to the tournament; it’s about competing for national championships. But UNC missed in the transfer portal and didn’t get a proper replacement for Armando Bacot. The Tar Heels are 1-9 in Quadrant 1 competition. That’s not NCAA Tournament-worthy at the moment, and the ACC isn’t stacked with opportunities either. Package that with a Quad 3 loss to Stanford at home and that quality result gets negated. North Carolina must beat Pitt at home on Saturday. If it can do that and knock off Clemson on Monday in a tough road game, things could be looking up again.
Indiana (Currently in Decourcy’s Next Four Out)
The Hoosiers have one more Quad 1 win than North Carolina and no blemishes outside the top quadrant, but their NET is 63, one spot behind a Penn State team that isn’t a tournament-caliber squad. Their season is currently floundering after having lost four in a row and having too many nights where they’ve just gotten blown out. If Indiana’s season is ever going to regain some momentum, Saturday’s home game against Michigan is a must-win.
Georgia (Currently in Decourcy’s Last Four In)
Like many teams floating around the bubble this time of year, the Bulldogs have no blemishes on their résumé but could use two to three more high-quality wins to lock up a ticket to the Big Dance. Third-year head coach Mike White has a team that I believe will end up in the tournament for the program’s first appearance in 10 years. Here’s the résumé at the moment: 2-7 against Quad 1, 3-0 against Quad 2, 3-0 against Quad 3 and 8-0 against Quad 4. The Bulldogs took care of business in a gotta-have-it game on Wednesday with an 81-62 win over LSU behind Blue Cain’s near triple-double of 10 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists. Their next four games come against tournament teams: vs. Mississippi State, at Texas A&M, vs. Missouri and at Auburn. If they can only get one win, they’re going to be looking at the rest of the bubble. Still, any team on the bubble in the SEC controls its path.
Xavier (Currently in Decourcy’s First Four Out)
The Big East’s shot at a fifth bid in the NCAA Tournament that isn’t a bid-stealer comes with the Musketeers, who were once ranked in the top 20 of the AP poll but didn’t stack together move-the-needle results in non-conference play. Their lone Quad 1 win — a 59-57 victory at Marquette — is a strong one, but they’re 0-8 in all other games against the top quadrant. Xavier did schedule well with just eight combined Quad 3/4 games and a 5-1 record versus Quad 2, but it needs a big February. I don’t think Xavier can take more than one loss this month. Sunday’s game at Villanova (noon ET on FS1 and the FOX Sports app) is a must-win to get on the right side of the bubble. If the Musketeers lose, their margin for error is really gone. Their KPI is 64 and needs to increase.
Vanderbilt (Currently in Decourcy’s Last Four In)
Mark Byington was a tremendous hire by the Commodores, and the dream of a first NCAA Tournament trip since 2017 is alive. The good: wins over Tennessee and Kentucky — particularly the one over the Vols, who are No. 4 in the NET. The bad: they’ve lost three of their past four games, including a 30-point defeat to Oklahoma. Saturday’s home game against Texas is one you’d really like to win because from there it’s vs. Auburn, at Tennessee and at Kentucky.
Wake Forest (Currently in Decourcy’s Last Four In)
The Demon Deacons started their West Coast swing with a road win that could become Quad 1 again over Stanford (NET: 77, top 1-75 on road is Q1) on Wednesday, 79-73. Cameron Hildreth led the way with 22 points, while Hunter Sallis posted 19 points, seven rebounds, five assists and three steals. Steve Forbes has a team that is certainly talented enough to be in the tournament, but it needs to get another quality result to shore up its résumé. Wake is 1-6 against Quad 1, 4-0 against Quad 2, 6-0 against Quad 3 and 6-0 against Quad 4. No bad losses and a good win over Michigan, but the Demon Deacons could use another result and can’t afford a bad defeat in the ACC. Saturday’s game at Cal is a must-win, as is an ensuing home contest with Florida State. The game on Feb. 15 at SMU is a huge bubble battle. If Wake wins that, this team can start thinking about the madness.
BYU (Currently in Decourcy’s Last Four In)
After missing a home opportunity against Arizona on Tuesday night, the Cougars are floating around the cut line. First-year head coach Kevin Young is bringing in No. 1 recruit A.J. Dybantsa next season, but garnering national momentum with a tournament bid would be good for him and this new regime. Recent victories over Baylor and UCF certainly help bolster their profile, as the Cougars sit with a NET of 35 and a pair of Quadrant 1 victories, but they’ve also taken a blowout loss to Providence and got beat by a down Utah team. Up next: a trip to Cincinnati against a Cougars team that entered the year with big expectations but is just 3-8 in Big 12 play. Still, that’s a tough spot for a bubble team, and it gets tougher followed by a trip to West Virginia.
SMU (Currently in Decourcy’s First Four Out)
Now is the time for the Ponies to make a push toward the Big Dance. Three of their next four are at home and against either tournament or bubble teams with Pitt and Wake Forest next week, a trip to a non-tournament Notre Dame squad, then a home game against a Clemson team that’s in my most recent Top 25 rankings. Clemson could be a Quad 1 opportunity. SMU does not possess a Q1 win, and that’s something that’s currently keeping them out.
Pitt (Currently in Decourcy’s First Four Out)
I don’t foresee the Panthers making the NCAA Tournament after a 16-point home loss to an 11-12 Virginia team. Saturday’s game is at North Carolina. If you’re going to salvage any part of this season, that has to be a win.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him at @John_Fanta.
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