Premier League sliding doors: The moments and fine margins which have shaped the season – and how it could have been different

Football is a game of fine margins. A goal-line clearance, a missed penalty or a controversial call from the officials can change a match, a season, a career.

This season’s Premier League has been shaped by moments which could easily have gone another way and shifted the course of history.

Here, we pick out 20 sliding-doors moments, where the fates of footballers and football clubs have been flipped and how it may otherwise all have panned out differently…

What if Rodri had not been injured?

No prizes for guessing the most important sliding-doors moment of the season. Rodri had spoken of his “worries” about the demands of the fixture list in the week ahead of his season-wrecking knee injury but few would have predicted such an epic collapse from Pep Guardiola’s side in the absence of Spain’s Euros winner.

City had tried to manage his fitness, delaying his first Premier League start of the season until that ill-fated appearance against Arsenal in September. A one-man team? There’s little doubt that if Rodri had stayed fit, the Premier League title race and City’s season would have gone very differently.

What if Saliba’s yellow had not been upgraded to a red at Bournemouth?

Arsenal have had several grievances with the officials this season but was the decision of ref Rob Jones to upgrade his initial yellow card to a red for William Saliba’s foul on Evanilson the most damaging one?

Arsenal ultimately lost at Bournemouth after seeing their star defender sent off in the first half and then conceded twice at home to Liverpool when Saliba was suspended in their next Premier League game. Centre-back partner Gabriel was also forced off injured in that match and depleted Arsenal were unable to close a four-point gap on Arne Slot’s side.

Mikel Arteta refused to criticise the call after the match but, without a VAR intervention, Arsenal’s title bid could have taken a different path.

What if VAR had got it right at West Ham and Ten Hag stayed on as Man Utd boss?

“I don’t think he should have got involved.” That was not Erik ten Hag’s verdict on the VAR intervention which cost Manchester United a point at West Ham and effectively saw the Dutchman lose his job, but the words of referees’ boss Howard Webb.

Referee David Coote had waved play on when Matthijs de Ligt challenged Danny Ings in the 87th minute but handed Jarrod Bowen the chance to win the game from the penalty spot after being advised to check the pitchside monitor by VAR Michael Oliver. Man Utd had missed four big chances in the game but Bowen scored the penalty, Ten Hag was sacked 24 hours later and the Ruben Amorim era began soon after.

What if West Ham had signed Duran instead of Fullkrug?

Staying in east London, West Ham’s season could also have gone a different way if they had landed Jhon Duran from Aston Villa in the summer.

The striker apologetically celebrated in front of the travelling fans after scoring at the London Stadium on the opening weekend, having previously made an ‘Irons’ sign with his arms on social media amid reports he was about to join Julen Lopetegui’s project.

Instead, Duran went on to score a Champions League stunner against Bayern Munich, register one of the best strike-rates in the Premier League and then make a big-money switch to Saudi Arabia. Unable to land Duran, West Ham signed injury-hit Niclas Fullkrug and have the fifth-worst goals total in the league.

Wood shines – after Forest failed to land Marmoush

Nottingham Forest had three bids for Omar Marmoush turned down last summer. The Egyptian went on to have a brilliant season in the Bundesliga before switching to Man City in January – but was the failure to sign him a blessing in disguise for Forest?

With Marmoush playing up front for Eintracht Frankfurt, Chris Wood was charged with leading the line again for Forest and the Kiwi has delivered an epic campaign of his own, scoring 18 Premier League goals for the Champions League chasers. His goals alone have been worth 15 points and Forest fans are quite happy their frontline was not switched up after all.

What if England had appointed Howe?

Thomas Tuchel’s appointment as England boss was a divisive decision given his German nationality – but the best English candidate, Eddie Howe, was committed to his Newcastle project.

Whether the Tuchel era is a successful one remains to be seen but, after leading Newcastle to their first domestic trophy win in 70 years, Howe’s legacy in the North East is assured, while another high league finish is on the cards. Would they have been able to achieve their Wembley heroics without him?

What if Man Utd had turned to Frank?

Thomas Frank had an intense few weeks in October, repeatedly fielding questions about whether he would be the next Man Utd manager. His impressive work at Brentford and connections with data-driven Sir Dave Brailsford, who played a leading role in finding Ten Hag’s successor, made for a compelling case.

How he would have approached the Old Trafford task – and what would have happened to Brentford after his near-nine-year association with the Bees – is an intriguing question. And one we do not know the answer to for now.

What if Van Dijk had seen red against Spurs?

Liverpool’s second-leg demolition of Tottenham in the Carabao Cup semi-final is one of many bad moments in Spurs’ season. Ange Postecoglou’s side were over-run at Anfield, with their first-leg advantage – and hopes of a domestic trophy – swept aside.

But it could all have been very different. Three minutes in, Virgil van Dijk caught Richarlison at the top of the Brazilian’s chest with his elbow as he tried to muscle him away from the ball. Richarlison was sent sprawling – and if the Dutchman had caught him a couple of inches higher Liverpool could have been down to 10.

Second-season silverware for Postecoglou and Tottenham – rather than Newcastle – ending their trophy drought at Wembley could have been the outcome.

What if Tarkowski had not come up with some Merseyside magic?

One of the most iconic moments of the season was James Tarkowski’s thunderbolt equaliser for Everton against Liverpool in stoppage time of the final Merseyside derby at Goodison Park.

But what if his strike had flown over the bar? Liverpool would forever have had bragging rights over their neighbours with a winning record in the derby at Everton. Instead, it is tied and David Moyes’ return brought a moment to serve as a fitting farewell to the famous old ground.

What if Saints had stuck with Martin’s project?

Sticking with a manager who had won one and drawn two from 16 Premier League games is not always an easy case to make. But Southampton fans could be forgiven for thinking: could it have been any worse if Russell Martin had not been sacked in December?

His replacement Ivan Juric has lost 10 of his 11 games and relegation is now a near certainty. A record-low points total is on the cards too. And the foundations from Martin’s promotion season have gone. Would Saints have been better in the long run to have stuck with the Martin project?

“I thought I was going to be there for this season and at the end of it I felt like the team was growing, I felt there were some results coming and some young players really growing and starting to believe they really belonged there,” said Martin on Monday Night Football recently.

Did Jackson’s miss at Everton derail Chelsea’s title bid?

Nicolas Jackson has copped criticism for his finishing since joining Chelsea and he will wonder how he did not nod them ahead against Everton in December when he sent a brilliant back-post chance against an upright. That could have edged a tight game at Goodison and sent the Blues top of the table and put pressure on Liverpool ahead of their trip to Tottenham later in the day.

Instead, Chelsea’s 15-game scoring run ended, a ‘nervous’ performance on Boxing Day led to defeat at home to Fulham and a run of just two wins across 10 games wrecked their title hopes.

Boss Enzo Maresca said he was happy with a point after the 0-0 draw with Everton and had talked down Chelsea’s Premier League prospects before the game – but had Jackson’s header sent them top of the pile confidence could well have grown in a group who had shone in the first half of the campaign.

What if Leicester had stuck with Cooper?

It is fair to say the appointment of Ruud van Nistelrooy has not been a success at Leicester. There was a winning start against West Ham and then a draw with Brighton – but since those openers he has overseen 13 defeats in 14 matches.

The man he replaced, Steve Cooper, as a former Nottingham Forest manager, was always likely to have his work cut out to win over the Leicester fans, but he was sacked in November with the team 16th, with 10 points from 12 games. They have only added seven points to that tally in the 17 matches since.

Cooper had experience of successfully navigating a Premier League relegation battle and had planned to strengthen with additions in the winter transfer window. In reflection, was he dispatched too soon?

What if Sa had seen red in Pereira’s opener?

Eight minutes on the clock. Jose Sa rushes out of his area and Leicester’s Jamie Vardy flicks the ball against him. Fortune goes Wolves’ way. The ball does not hit Sa’s hand, which would likely have seen Wolves reduced to 10 against their relegation rivals, and it does not deflect into the path of the Foxes’ striker to score.

Instead, Wolves romp to a thumping 3-0 victory in Vitor Pereira’s first game in charge, close in on third-bottom Leicester to change the survival scrap narrative and shake off the frustrations of the final days of Gary O’Neil’s tenure to ultimately pull themselves towards safety.

What if Villa had not signed Asensio?

Marco Asensio’s arrival from PSG in the January transfer window grabbed the headlines, but Aston Villa have been burned by a big-name signing before with Philippe Coutinho. However, on this occasion, the impact of the star turn has exceeded all expectations.

With seven goals in eight appearances, including two against Cardiff and three against Club Brugge to fire his side into the quarter-finals of the FA Cup and Champions League respectively, Asensio is steering Villa to a promising end to the season with silverware well within their sights.

What if Brighton had cashed in on Mitoma?

The offer from Saudi Arabia was a big one, £54m for a winger who turns 28 at the end of this season. But Brighton turned it down the bid for Kaoru Mitoma, and they will be hugely pleased they did.

In the weeks after, the Japanese star provided two key moments to get the Seagulls’ season back on track following the 7-0 drubbing at Nottingham Forest – both against Chelsea.

There was the winning goal in the FA Cup – keeping Brighton’s hope of a first major trophy alive – and then the opener in their 3-0 Premier League win a week later. A glorious touch and finish among the best seen this season. Since then, there have been four wins and a draw at Man City, and the push towards a European spot is once again very much alive.

What if Bournemouth had been unable to cope without Evanilson?

Losing your starting striker to a broken foot in the same campaign you sell Dominic Solanke would be a potentially season-ending problem for most teams – but not Bournemouth.

In the seven games the Cherries were without record-signing Evanilson, they secured five wins and one draw. A loss to league-leaders Liverpool was the only blemish on their impressive record.

David Brooks and Antoine Semenyo, as well as others, contributed, but it was Dango Ouattara and Justin Kluivert who stepped up when their team needed them most.

Their hat-tricks in the wins against Nottingham Forest and Newcastle respectively – two European football contenders – optimise the ‘next-man-up’ mentality at the Vitality Stadium.

What if Ipswich had not conceded late leveller to Fulham?

Momentum looked to be building for Ipswich at the end of 2024 with a 2-0 win against Chelsea, but Fulham punctured that positivity with a late leveller in their first game of 2025.

Raul Jimenez’s 91st-minute equaliser from the penalty spot has sent the Tractor Boys spiralling.

Since that moment, Kieran McKenna’s side have lost eight of their nine games in the top flight, which could have easily been a full house if it was not for a spirited performance against Aston Villa with 10 players on the pitch.

They now sit nine points adrift of safety – but where would they be if Jimenez had missed?

What if Slot had not tasted defeat early in his Liverpool charge?

The construction of the success of Arne Slot’s Liverpool has mostly been by design, but maybe there is an element of accident too. Perhaps a blessing in disguise arrived when Slot was “shocked” by his side’s loss to Nottingham Forest in September – their only league defeat of the season – where the Dutchman learnt his biggest lesson about the dangers of the Premier League. The Eredivisie this is not.

That moment of vulnerability seemed to endear him to the Anfield faithful. Slot’s understated style, far less emotional than predecessor Jurgen Klopp’s, took some die-hard Liverpudlians a bit of time to get used to. But his consistency has since won admirers. And the flat, somewhat lifeless atmosphere that Jamie Carragher called “strange” on the day of that Forest defeat has not been replicated on Merseyside since.

Fulham’s feelgood factor channelled in rare derby win

Fulham gave their fans a Boxing Day to remember when super-sub Rodrigo Muniz rocked up with a 95th-minute winner against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. It was the first time they had beaten their London rivals on their patch in any competition since 1979. And undoubtedly the club’s best moment of 2024.

Away fans were stunned into a state of frenzy, disbelief and genuine tears. Some said it harked back to the feelgood factor of Roy Hodgson’s reign in the late noughties. Marco Silva’s side have won 20 Premier League points since that historic victory, six more than Chelsea have managed, and stayed within touching distance of the top five to be in with a real shout of European football.

New year, new Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace have been one of the form sides of 2025, in stark contrast to the way they started the season when they were firm relegation contenders. To illustrate, Palace picked up more points in the first two months of the year than all but three top-flight clubs. But before such upturn there were plenty of what-if moments.

What if faith in Oliver Glasner had been lost? What if much-desired Marc Guehi had been sold in the January transfer window? What if Maxence Lacroix – now considered one of the signings of the season – had not come good? Palace are now unbeaten in their last nine away league games, just one short of their club record on the road, keeping a clean sheet in each of their last five.

The change has been profoundly positive and proof that sometimes the braver option is to stick rather than twist.