With so few upsets during the NCAA Tournament’s first two rounds, this week’s Sweet 16 promises to be an unbelievable treat packed with blue-blood programs, All-American players and Hall of Fame-worthy coaches.
There’s just one problem with this.
Because so many of these teams have similar records and résumés, it makes it extra tough to discern which teams are legit and which just might quit.
But just like some point guards are blessed with incredible vision, we’re blessed with the ability to see through certain individuals and teams.
For example, when the NCAA throws its annual basketball bash in March, you can be darn sure Rick Barnes will be there.
You can also be pretty darn sure Barnes will leave the party early — or at least make sure not to overstay his welcome.
Here’s what we mean: Over the last 30 NCAA Tournaments, the 70-year-old Barnes has served as a head coach in 26 of them. That covers his last season at Providence, three of his four seasons at Clemson, all six of his years at Texas and the last seven of his nine seasons at Tennessee. In the pre-NIL era, he needed two years to rebuild the program, and he has done it quite well.
Barnes has been so good for so long, he ranks 11th on the Division I all-time wins list with 835. He also has been nominated for the Basketball Hall of Fame, which will reveal its Class of 2025 honorees on April 5 — a.k.a. Final Four Saturday.
Will Barnes and his Tennessee Vols be in San Antonio that day in a working capacity? You be the judge.
Of those 26 NCAA appearances over the last 30 years, guess how many times Barnes’ teams have outperformed their seed? (Hint: Don’t waste too much time on this.)
Answer: Once.
That happened in 2002, when his Texas Longhorns received a No. 6 seed but, behind precocious point guard T.J. Ford and company, earned one more win than expected by reaching the Sweet 16.
Now, guess how many times Barnes’ teams have underperformed their seed. Would you believe 13 times in 26 tournaments?
So, as you’re staring at Sweet 16 matchups and wondering which coaches (and programs) might be feeling a little extra heat, Tennessee bubbles to the top quickly.
Not only does Barnes have a slew of March mishaps on his résumé, Tennessee has never reached a Final Four.
To put Rocky Top even more on edge, Tennessee walks into a tough situation Friday night at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. Yes, the Vols are the No. 2 seed compared to Kentucky’s No. 3 seed. Yes, online sportsbooks have generally installed the Vols as a four-point favorite.
But Kentucky won both regular-season meetings with Tennessee — 78-73 and 75-64 — and Big Blue Nation is notorious for acquiring more than its share of tickets for any NCAA Tournament game. With Lexington, Kentucky, just a three-hour drive from Indianapolis, Wildcats fans surely will outnumber Vols fans in the stands.
As established above, if Tennessee doesn’t beat Kentucky, it would simply be repeating the pattern for Barnes and the Vols.
But what if Tennessee somehow won the Midwest Region? It would erase all of the previous years’ shortcomings and then some.
Heck, Barnes might get a statue in Knoxville — not too far from the one that celebrates the late Pat Summitt and her eight national championships.
We also guess Barnes might say something similar to what he offered well after midnight Saturday following Tennessee’s second-round win over UCLA.
“We’ve got the best fan base in the country, and we believe that,” Barnes said. “Everybody says it. We truly believe it. … Obviously, I’ve got the best coaching staff in the country, but (the credit) goes to the players. They’re the ones that grind it every day.”
