For the first time in three years, the Chicago Bears are not on the clock with the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, and general manager Ryan Poles is privately thanking his lucky stars not to be in his former co-worker’s shoes.
Mike Borgonzi took over as GM of the Titans after 10 years with the Chiefs, where Poles was trained in scouting, and walked into a turnaround project in Tennessee that includes the grand prize in the 2025 draft.
Open to debate is whether the No. 1 pick has much value in a draft with a limited number of blue-chip prospects.
The power position of controlling the draft is for sale in Nashville.
Tennessee would love to move down—a sentiment Borgonzi repeated multiple times. One team we talked to in Indianapolis last week suggested the player the Titans want is Colorado Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter. If a team wants to move up for a quarterback—hello, Browns and Giants—Borgonzi is all ears.
The rub here is Cleveland’s GM, Andrew Berry, and the Giants’ front office, led by Joe Schoen, are fully aware the Titans are not in love with the QB class. Tennessee could show its hand this week by luring a veteran in free agency. If the Titans don’t chase QBs, Borgonzi is bluffing, and you can pencil in Cam Ward of Miami as the No. 1 pick.
Opportunity cost, value and need intersect with the QB pick for each of the teams in the top three this year.
Consider 2024 No. 1 pick Caleb Williams’ four-year rookie deal was worth a total of $39 million before the fifth-year option. To sign the top quarterback in free agency last spring, the Atlanta Falcons forked over a $50 million signing bonus on a four-year deal with an annual average value more than 4.5 times the Williams contract.
There is not a soul buying the Titans’ pledge to let Will Levis compete for the starting job. He was handed the opportunity in 2024 and fumbled his way to the bench behind Mason Rudolph, tossing in a pick-six here and there for good measure.
The multiplier in the entire scenario is job security. If you were ranking the GM-coach combos of the Titans, Browns and Giants by win-now pressure, New York is the frontrunner by a considerable distance. Borgonzi and second-year coach Brian Callahan have at least another year before they should sweat. The Browns signed Berry and head coach Kevin Stefanski to new contracts before the 2024 season. Brian Daboll and Schoen are candidates to be shown the door if the Giants fail to compete again in 2025.
Their draft direction also depends on a pass-fail grade in free agency. Can they fix the QB position short-term and long-term? Do they have enough on the offensive line and at the skill positions to make it work with a veteran such as Kirk Cousins or Aaron Rodgers?
After going hard after Matthew Stafford in February—the Giants had permission to negotiate with the Rams’ starter, who opted to stay in Los Angeles—New York’s cards are on the table.
If they whiff again when free agency starts, Schoen is the one GM in this draft who’ll pay prime-rib prices for a smash burger.
Tennessee’s motive, for now, is gathering “as many picks in the top 100 as possible,” as Borgonzi said.
If he can unload the top pick for top-shelf prices and still nab Hunter—widely believed to be his top target—the Titans are immediately on track for a turnaround. But that still leaves Nashville with a big band and no lead singer.
Which brings us back to value.
The QB options in the draft are not of the stock of Williams or other top picks in recent memory. Callahan could have his eye on a second-tier option to compete with Levis, which makes acquiring extra picks from the Giants or another suitor even more important.
A trade back into the first round to throw a few (Jaxson) Darts? Gamble on a perceived game manager with Dillon Gabriel or Quinn Ewers? Take a swing at the modern-day Brandon Weeden with Louisville’s closer-to-30-than-20 Brandon Shough?
Need could change before the draft kicks off in Green Bay. The supply will stay the same.
In Nashville, the decision all comes down to opportunity cost. In New York, there might be no choice but to overpay to gain control of the draft.
