The Best Expert MLB Future Player Prop Bets for 2025: Top Picks & Predictions | Deadspin.com

Yes, sir, and even before we arrive at Opening Day, there are a plethora of betting opportunities to check out that can be followed all year. Here are my six baseball futures and prop wagers that you should absolutely consider (aside from the fact that I went 5-1 on my six such bets last year).

1. Gavin Williams, Cleveland Guardians: Over 129.5 Strikeouts (-120, DraftKings), Risking 4.8 units

Feeling like you’re playing catch-up the whole time in the process of competing against the most talented players in the world isn’t an ideal way to achieve success.

That’s the situation Gavin Williams found himself in last year after sustaining an injury to his pitching elbow in spring training. He began the season on the injured list and spent about the first half of the campaign there.

As Williams put it, he was never really able to get into a groove and went on to turn in a 3-10 record and 4.86 ERA for the season in 16 starts—not to mention a disappointing postseason debut against the Yankees. It was a far cry from when he debuted the prior year and crafted a 3.29 ERA in the same number of outings while impressively holding hitters to a .219 batting average against.

Based on how this year’s spring has played out, it would appear Williams is unquestionably in a groove, as he’s churned out a 2.08 ERA and 0.98 WHIP in five starts. Furthermore, he’s limited opponents to a puny .210/.269/.306 slash line.

One common denominator between Williams’ two big-league seasons is that he hasn’t had any issues racking up strikeouts. In 158 innings, Cleveland’s 2021 first-round draft pick amassed 160 K’s. This spring, he’s exhibited a tastier strikeout rate, punching out 26 batters in 17.1 innings.

Williams is armed with tremendous stuff and possesses the makings of a frontline pitcher about to blossom. Yet all we need is for him to reach a low benchmark of 130 strikeouts. If the 25-year-old simply stays mostly healthy, he will smash that amount.

2. Jacob Wilson, Athletics: Over 119.5 Hits (-120, DraftKings), Risking 2.4 units

Numerous father-son duos continue to thrive in Major League Baseball, including the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bobby Witt Jr. and Fernando Tatis Jr.

One pairing not nearly as heralded—but soon may be—involves former All-Star Jack Wilson, whose son, Jacob, is about to embark on his first full season in the bigs.

While the elder Wilson etched a fine career that spanned 12 seasons, it wasn’t primarily because of his bat. The former longtime Pittsburgh Pirate was known more for his slick defense at shortstop, though he did also add a Silver Slugger Award to his mantle in 2004.

Jacob, meanwhile, projects as a far better hitter after being drafted No. 6 overall just two years ago. He’s one of seven players within the top 13 picks from that draft to have already debuted.

The younger Wilson has already had a fascinating beginning to his major league journey. The soon-to-be 23-year-old singled in his first career plate appearance last July—but then sustained a hamstring strain shortly after while rounding third base. Wilson returned about a month later and stayed with the A’s the rest of the summer, ultimately compiling 92 at-bats and a .250 batting average.

While that may not sound like a standout performance, remember that for the purposes of this bet, registering a .250 mark would suffice for the Grand Canyon University product to eclipse such a low hit total—if he can stay healthy. He’s expected to play a lot at shortstop—like father, like son—so even just getting in there for 135-ish games should do the trick.

And the potential is certainly there for a lot more. Wilson has stood out in spring training, hitting .308 in 52 at-bats to go along with a team-high four homers. He was a .361 hitter in 155 lifetime college games, so perhaps his spring showing is more in line with what he’s capable of. Either way, this is a low number that Wilson will top decisively.

3. Trevor Larnach, Minnesota Twins: Over 19.5 Home Runs (+140, DraftKings), Risking 2 units

With Trevor Larnach set to be in the lineup every day over a full season for the first time in his career, it’s time to invest in what this former No. 20 overall draft pick is capable of producing.

Minnesota is going to need some big bats to emerge with Carlos Santana, Max Kepler and Alex Kirilloff no longer in town (not to mention Royce Lewis’ early-season trip to the injured list), and that’s where guys like Larnach and teammate Matt Wallner are expected to pick up the slack.

Larnach will occupy one of the middle spots in the batting order daily, and he should capitalize on the opportunity. He’s already proven he can be trusted with ducks on the pond, as his .344 batting average with runners in scoring position last year would have ranked him seventh in baseball—in between Juan Soto and Brent Rooker—had he received enough at-bats to qualify for this distinction.

But can he provide the long ball?

I believe Larnach can, and his power surge a season ago points to him doing so. The 6-foot-4 slugger hit a career-high 15 home runs in 2024 in 355 at-bats. He also hit 15 home runs the year prior in his final campaign at Triple-A St. Paul in just 72 games.

All we need is for Larnach to hover around the 450-500 at-bat plateau—which he should hit with his newfound regular playing time—and he’ll get to 20 homers. Best of all, this wager comes with plus odds.

Rhys Hoskins, Milwaukee Brewers: Over 21.5 Home Runs (-120, Caesars) Risking 1.2 units

For years, Rhys Hoskins was one of the most feared sluggers in the National League. From the moment he debuted eight years ago, his power has been on full display—even walloping 18 home runs in a mere 50 games as a rookie.

Through the next five years (not including the shortened 60-game season of 2020), Hoskins averaged exactly 30 home runs. But then something happened that would derail the 6-foot-3 slugger’s potential Hall of Fame trajectory.

In March 2023, Hoskins suffered a torn ACL and had his entire season wiped out. So, too, was his tenure with the Philadelphia Phillies.

He landed with the Milwaukee Brewers last year and experienced mixed results. Hoskins did survive most of the schedule—spending only one stint on the injured list—and swatted 26 homers in 131 games (although still falling short of his home run prop by a measly half, resulting in my only loss!). But at the same time, his .214 average, .303 on-base percentage and .722 OPS were all the lowest totals he has ever registered in each category.

To be fair, Hoskins had a lot to overcome. Aside from the grind of recovering from a major injury, he was also doing it while with a new organization for the first time in his career. This certainly played a role in hindering his comfort level early on.

Flash forward a year later, the seven-year veteran is now adjusted to his new digs and prepared to get back to his normal levels of production. Hoskins certainly seems primed to do so based on how his spring training has gone. In 42 at-bats, he has launched six home runs and hit at a .262/.392/.690 clip.

The key is that we just need this perennial power threat to keep cranking out the home runs. Even in a down season, he still managed to exceed this year’s number of 21.5 pretty easily. I fully expect Hoskins to inflate that batting average again now that he has had a normal offseason with his current club. That will ensure he goes yard more than we need him to.

Jordan Romano, Philadelphia Phillies: Over 29.5 Saves (+170, DraftKings) Risking 0.5 unit

Three players on the Phillies saved more than five games last year. Two of them, Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estevez, are gone, and the other, Jose Alvarado, didn’t record a single save after the Fourth of July.

Enter Philadelphia’s new closer, Jordan Romano, whom the club signed to a one-year, $8.5 million deal this winter that could turn out to be one of the best bargains of the offseason.

True, Romano is coming off an injury-plagued campaign that saw him saddled with a 6.59 ERA in 15 games. The Ontario, Canada, native missed the last four months of the campaign as he underwent arthroscopic surgery for a right elbow impingement.

All indications are that Romano is getting back to normal, however—at least throughout spring training. He hasn’t allowed an earned run in any of his 8.2 innings of work and struck out eight.

Remember that when healthy, the seventh-year right-hander has typically been one of the most reliable late-inning options in the sport. Romano tallied more than 35 saves in both 2022 and 2023 while constructing a sub-3.00 ERA in each season.

Being on a consistently winning team can only enhance the likelihood of getting there once more in the year ahead. Hopefully, his health will hold up and he can get back to being the Jordan Romano of old. Getting to 30 saves scores nice plus odds.

Boston Red Sox to Make Playoffs (-125, DraftKings) Risking 1.25 units

Perhaps no American League team made a bigger splash this past offseason than Boston, which retooled its already talented club in all areas.

The most striking move, of course, was acquiring ace Garrett Crochet from the lowly White Sox. Crochet returned to a starting role last season for the first time since college and was nothing short of incredible. Just look at the whopping 209 strikeouts he accumulated in only 146 innings.

Crochet is still just 25 years old and has the potential to be one of the best starting pitchers in baseball for a long time. Not only did the Red Sox add him to what was already a solid rotation, but they also signed postseason legend Walker Buehler. Additionally, they’re getting Lucas Giolito back from injury, too.

So, clearly, pitching is a strength, and even with the team losing Kenley Jansen and Chris Martin, the bullpen can be one as well. Aroldis Chapman is on the roster now to close games out.

Offense may be Boston’s forte, however. Alex Bregman was lured over from Houston, and he joins a fairly stacked lineup that includes the likes of Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Triston Casas and a healthy (for now) Trevor Story, among others. Plus, we’ll also probably see the arrival of their top three prospects at some point this year in Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell. At least one of those guys figures to make a strong impact as early as this season.

Most notably, the AL East can be theirs for the taking. The Yankees have sustained a bevy of key injuries already, while the Orioles are leaning on a below-average starting pitching staff. Then there are the Blue Jays and Rays, both of whom have work to do to portray being serious threats again.

Boston doesn’t even need to win the division for this bet to cash. The organization’s ceiling is quite high for 2025, and we’ll simply settle for them just to reach the postseason.