Liverpool are facing the prospect of losing Trent Alexander-Arnold on a free transfer at the end of the season as Real Madrid advance in talks over a move to take him to the Bernabeu.
Liverpool have been trying to tie the 26-year-old academy graduate to a new, long-term contract at Anfield but he has turned down their proposals and informed them of his intention to leave when his deal expires at the end of the campaign.
Alexander-Arnold has made 349 appearances for his boyhood club since making his senior debut aged 18 in 2016, developing into one of the Premier League’s most effective playmakers under Jurgen Klopp and playing a key role in their title charge under Arne Slot.
Just how big a blow would Alexander-Arnold’s exit be? How do his numbers stack up compared to the Premier League’s other top creators? And how on earth would Liverpool replace him?
Liverpool’s creative king
Alexander-Arnold’s extraordinary contribution at Liverpool has helped redefine expectations around full-backs. He is the side’s main playmaker and the hub around which the team revolves. Despite nominally being a defender, he has racked up creative numbers to rival any No 10.
In fact, since his Premier League debut in December 2016, Alexander-Arnold has created the second-most chances of any Premier League player, behind only Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne.
Alexander-Arnold’s total of 514 chances created in that timeframe is 22 per cent higher than any other defender’s, with his Liverpool team-mate Andrew Robertson next-highest on 421 chances created. After that, it is Lucas Digne, formerly of Everton and now of Aston Villa, on 330.
A deeper look at the numbers underlines the breadth of his creativity.
He has not amassed such a high number of chances created simply by being an effective corner-taker, for example. Instead, a player who once told Sky Sports he can “play any pass he can see” has demonstrated a rare ability to create danger in all phases of play.
Consider the fact that, since the start of 2018/19, his first full campaign as a Liverpool starter, Alexander-Arnold ranks sixth among Premier League players for chances created from open play in addition to being third for chances created from set-pieces.
He has made a total of 88 through-balls in that time, the seventh-most among all Premier League players and nearly four times as many as any other active defender.
His total of 63 assists in the same period, meanwhile, has him third, behind only his Liverpool team-mate Mohamed Salah, who has 75, and De Bruyne on 74. His overall total of 64 assists in the Premier League is the highest by any defender in the competition’s history.
Assists, though, are not the best reflection of a player’s creativity given they depend on the finishing ability of others. A better way to measure the true quality of chances created is to use ‘expected’ assists, a metric which measures the likelihood of a chance leading to a goal. Alexander-Arnold’s numbers are unrivalled on that front.
Since the start of the 2018/19 season, he has racked up a total of 58.67 xA, putting him top. As a defender, he is an incongruous presence in a list made up of stellar attacking midfielders and forwards, including De Bruyne, Salah and Bruno Fernandes.
Alexander-Arnold typically operates in deeper areas than those players, albeit with licence to tuck inside, but nobody is better when it comes to getting the ball into the opposition box.
In total, he has made 2,593 passes into the box since his Premier League debut, the most by any player and another example of the remarkable scale of his attacking influence.
His outstanding distribution is not just a means of creating chances, either. It is also invaluable in stretching opponents, something which comes across in his numbers for switches of play.
His pinpoint cross-field passes are a trademark and have become a major feature of Liverpool’s approach. Since Opta started recording the data in 2017/18, he has made 400 switches of play, which is nearly twice as many as any other player. Brighton centre-back Lewis Dunk is next on 236. It is just another attribute to set him apart.
Salah supply line, defensive questions
Alexander-Arnold is not the only one approaching the end of his contract at Liverpool, of course. Virgil van Dijk and Salah are in the same position. If the latter is to stay, the club will need to find a way of replacing the invaluable service provided by the player who operates behind him at right-back.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Sky Sports News senior reporter Rob Dorsett gives the latest on Trent Alexander-Arnold’s proposed move to Real Madrid and explains how advanced talks are
Salah has benefitted hugely from that supply line over the years and the understanding between the pair is mutual, with Alexander-Arnold recently describing the 32-year-old as his closest team-mate.
“Just because of how long we’ve known each other and how long we’ve played together, our bond and connection, especially on the pitch,” he said. “Even though we could so many times, we never moan at each other. We just know each other’s style of play.”
Alexander-Arnold’s role in helping to bring the best out of Salah shines through in the numbers.
Since becoming team-mates in 2017, Alexander-Arnold has created more chances for Salah in the Premier League than any other player, with 100. His total puts him 13 clear of the departed Sadio Mane and is nearly twice as high as any other current Liverpool player, with Robertson next on 51.
Salah has, undoubtedly, been Liverpool’s top performer this season, and indeed in many of his previous seasons at the club. But Alexander-Arnold has been a key facilitator, knitting together their right side as a bridge between defence and attack. It is an example of how losing him, while a huge blow in itself, could have knock-on effects.
Solid arrows show most common passes; dotted line shows most common movement
Not that his contribution is entirely positive.
While Salah is indebted to Alexander-Arnold for his service, Alexander-Arnold has come to rely on the support of his fellow defenders at the other end of the pitch.
His vision and passing ability are unmatched but his perceived defensive frailties often make him a target for opponents.
In fact, since his Premier League debut, he has been dribbled past more than 100 times more than any other player, at 296, a statistic which highlights his struggles in one-on-one defending.
Can Trent be replaced?
Although he may have his flaws as a defender, Alexander-Arnold’s Premier League career to this point shows his strengths far outweigh his weaknesses.
His extraordinary creative numbers underline the immense challenge the club would face to replace him. In the Premier League, at least, no defender has demonstrated the same offensive capability with anything like the same level of consistency.
His uniqueness is part of his appeal to Real Madrid.
Please use Chrome browser for a more accessible video player
Alan Smith says the lure of Real Madrid is “irresistible” to Trent Alexander-Arnold
Liverpool do of course have a capable alternative in the 21-year-old Conor Bradley, who has demonstrated considerable potential as Alexander-Arnold’s deputy across the last two seasons.
Bradley has made 50 senior appearances in all competitions in total. He performed particularly impressively during Alexander-Arnold’s absence with a knee injury in the second half of last term.
But he is a very different type of right-back to Alexander-Arnold and while he does offer offensive threat, he does not come close to his team-mate’s numbers in terms of chance creation.
He averages less than half as many expected assists per 90 minutes as Alexander-Arnold, according to Opta, and completes a fraction as many crosses, despite being a more explosive runner.
Bradley does not have the same ability to progress the ball with his passes, sending a far lower percentage of passes forward than Alexander-Arnold. And while he does offer greater defensive solidity, it is worth noting, as per the graphic above, that he is still dribbled past at a relatively high rate per 90 minutes.
It is probably harsh to judge a young player like Bradley’s attacking capabilities by the standards set by his fellow Liverpool right-back. But that is the reality for Liverpool as they face up to his exit.
Finding a direct replacement for Alexander-Arnold is probably an impossible task. Instead, it might be a case of recalibration, and of mitigating the loss of his huge offensive contribution in other ways.
