The fallout from the alleged Chinese language “spy” balloon that flew over america has cemented a close to bipartisan consensus in Washington over the necessity to “stand up” to Beijing, as competitors between the 2 international locations intensifies.
Whereas US officers stress they continue to be open to dialogue with China regardless of the renewed tensions, many politicians in Washington are invoking the incident to name for harder insurance policies.
US President Joe Biden himself warned China towards threatening US sovereignty throughout his annual State of the Union speech, seen by an estimated 23.4 million TV viewers on Tuesday night.
“The Biden administration has shown that it is very concerned with attacks particularly from the right, from Republican critics, that they are being too soft on China,” mentioned Tobita Chow, director of Justice Is International, a challenge that advocates for a extra sustainable worldwide economic system.
“And because of that pressure coming in from the right, I think we often see them leaning further in the direction of confrontational politics.”
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken postponed a beforehand scheduled journey to Beijing over the balloon incident, which the Biden administration has referred to as an “unacceptable” violation of American sovereignty.
The US navy shot down the balloon on Saturday because it flew over the Atlantic Ocean, after days of debate and congressional calls to deliver it down.
In his State of the Union speech, Biden mentioned the US just isn’t looking for confrontation in its competitors with China however warned that Washington will get up for its pursuits towards Beijing.
“As we made clear last week, if China threatens our sovereignty, we will act to protect our country — and we did,” he mentioned.
What do we all know in regards to the balloon?
Little is publicly identified in regards to the Chinese language balloon or what it was doing in US airspace. Nonetheless, its presence precipitated a major political stir and produced numerous information headlines and wall-to-wall protection.
China initially expressed remorse for the incident, describing the balloon as a civilian airship used for meteorological analysis that “deviated far from its planned course”. Beijing later condemned the US hit to deliver down the plane.
However the Pentagon insisted it was a “high-altitude surveillance balloon”, though US defence officers mentioned the balloon didn’t pose a “military or physical threat”.
Nonetheless, some Republican lawmakers stored describing the plane as a danger to nationwide safety.
Republican Senator Tom Cotton denounced the Biden administration for permitting the balloon to traverse the continental US for days earlier than capturing it down.
Cotton advised Fox News earlier this week that he felt the delay in Biden’s response was “dangerous for the American people”. He additionally accused the administration of pushing to salvage Blinken’s go to to Beijing, which he described as “already ill-advised”.
US officers had beforehand mentioned that, if the balloon have been introduced down over land, falling particles may “potentially cause civilian injuries or deaths or significant property damage”.
Christopher Heurlin, an affiliate professor of presidency and Asian research at Bowdoin School within the US state of Maine, mentioned whereas the balloon could not have been a direct risk to People, it created a “shock” within the nation.
“We like to think in the United States that we live in North America and we’re oceans away from any kind of competitors — and in that sense, not very vulnerable,” Heurlin advised Al Jazeera.
“Whereas having the spy balloon flying overhead, I think, does create some kind of visceral sense of vulnerability in the collective psyche.”
As for Blinken’s journey, Heurlin mentioned “political considerations” performed a task within the choice to postpone it.
“I’m not sure that politically Biden would have been able to get away with sending Secretary of State Blinken to China under these circumstances,” he advised Al Jazeera.
Chow, the director of Justice Is International, agreed that the “panic” over the balloon possible led to suspending the go to.
“I think the Biden administration correctly judged that the balloon was not really that big of a deal,” Chow advised Al Jazeera. “But they felt overwhelmed by this wave of media coverage and this very extreme freakout from the right.”
How we received right here
The balloon incident got here towards the backdrop of rising animosity between Washington and Beijing.
Final yr, the White Home launched a national security strategy that described China because the “most consequential geopolitical challenge” for the US. The Pentagon additionally prioritised competitors with Beijing in its defence strategy.
Each assessments primarily centered on China, not Russia, regardless of the latter’s invasion of Ukraine, which has disrupted international provide chains for important items like meals and vitality and ushered in probably the most intense violence in Europe since World Struggle II.
Ties between Beijing and Washington have soured over quite a few factors of stress lately, together with commerce points, the status of Taiwan, China’s claims within the South China Sea and an ongoing US push towards rising Chinese language affect within the Indo-Pacific.
The US has additionally been warning China towards coming to Russia’s aid in Ukraine.
So how did we get right here?
As Washington’s so-called “war on terror” — initiated throughout the aftermath of the 9/11 assaults — started to wind down, the US turned its focus to competing with China, whose financial energy and push for international affect has been rising.
Chow mentioned the basis of the tensions is “neoliberal free-trade globalisation”. That financial framework, he defined, has been experiencing deeper systemic issues for the reason that 2008 financial crisis and has led to “zero-sum competition, which then became the breeding ground for dangerous nationalist politics”.
Heurlin, the professor, linked the present state of affairs between the 2 international locations to economics as effectively. He mentioned that, with the lack of manufacturing jobs to outsourcing, the anger of many within the US has shifted to China.
He added that for the reason that rise of President Xi Jinping in 2012, Beijing has pursued an assertive international coverage that features a “vocal defence of Chinese interests”.
“That is something that they’ve been doing really to appeal to Chinese nationalists back home,” Heurlin advised Al Jazeera.
“So I think on both sides, this is something that’s been happening for a while. And then especially once Donald Trump comes to the American presidency and starts the trade war with China, that’s when relations really start to bottom out.”
In the end, Heurlin mentioned, the US authorities’s purpose is to “maintain its status quo position as the most militarily and economically powerful country in the world”.
What’s subsequent for US-China relations?
Regardless of the deteriorating relationship, officers in each international locations proceed to name for cooperation on shared international challenges — particularly combatting local weather change and the COVID pandemic — in addition to warn towards confrontation.
However for the foreseeable future, the tensions present no signal of subsiding.
“What we should anticipate is that conflict between the US and China is going to continue and build and escalate over time,” Chow mentioned. “And if things don’t change, then yes, this is going to be a long-term great power conflict that is going to have enormous consequences for people in the US and China and around the world.”
Heurlin echoed that prediction however mentioned he hopes that, with China ending its “zero COVID” insurance policies, extra people-to-people interactions between US and Chinese language residents would soften public opinion in each international locations.
“It’s getting harder and harder to manage the US-China relationship from the perspective of both Beijing and Washington and I don’t think there really is any kind of magical solution,” he mentioned.
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