PLEASE NOTE: This forecast, assembled by The Hollywood Reporter’s executive editor of awards, Scott Feinberg, reflects his best attempt to predict the behavior of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, not his personal preferences. He arrives at these standings by drawing upon consultations with voters and industry insiders, analysis of marketing and awards campaigns, results of awards ceremonies that precede the Oscars and the history of the Oscars ceremony itself. There will be regular updates to reflect new developments.
* * *
*BEST PICTURE*
Frontrunners
Top Gun: Maverick (Paramount) — podcast (Jerry Bruckheimer)
The Fabelmans (Universal) — podcast (Steven Spielberg)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (A24)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Searchlight)
Elvis (Warner Bros.)
Tár (Focus)
Avatar: The Way of Water (20th Century/Disney)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Netflix)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Disney) — podcast (Kevin Feige)
RRR (Variance)
Major Threats
Babylon (Paramount)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Netflix)
Triangle of Sadness (Neon)
The Whale (A24)
Women Talking (UAR)
Possibilities
The Woman King (Sony)
She Said (Universal)
Living (Sony Classics)
Aftersun (A24)
Till (UAR) — podcast (Barbara Broccoli)
*BEST DIRECTOR*
Frontrunners
Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans) — podcast
Todd Field (Tár)
Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin)
James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water)
Daniel Scheinert and Daniel Kwan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Major Threats
Baz Luhrmann (Elvis)
Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front)
Joseph Kosinski (Top Gun: Maverick)
Sarah Polley (Women Talking)
S. S. Rajamouli (RRR)
Damien Chazelle (Babylon) — podcast
Possibilities
Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness)
Gina Prince-Bythewood (The Woman King)
Ryan Coogler (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Ron Howard (Thirteen Lives) — podcast
Darren Aronofsky (The Whale)
Charlotte Wells (Aftersun)
*BEST ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Austin Butler (Elvis)
Brendan Fraser (The Whale)
Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Bill Nighy (Living)
Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick)
Major Threats
Adam Sandler (Hustle) — podcast
Paul Mescal (Aftersun)
Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans)
Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)
Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)
Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) — podcast 1 and 2
Possibilities
Daniel Kaluuya (Nope)
Diego Calva (Babylon)
Hugh Jackman (The Son) — podcast
Felix Kammerer (All Quiet on the Western Front)
Will Smith (Emancipation) — podcast
Song Kang-ho (Broker)
*BEST ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — podcast
Cate Blanchett (Tár) — podcast
Danielle Deadwyler (Till)
Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
Ana de Armas (Blonde)
Major Threats
Olivia Colman (Empire of Light)
Viola Davis (The Woman King)
Margot Robbie (Babylon) — podcast
Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande) — podcast
Vicky Krieps (Corsage)
Andrea Riseborough (To Leslie)
Possibilities
Rooney Mara (Women Talking)
Jennifer Lawrence (Causeway) — podcast
Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu) — podcast
Zoe Kazan (She Said)
Letitia Wright (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Jessica Chastain (The Good Nurse) — podcast
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR*
Frontrunners
Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Paul Dano (The Fabelmans)
Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans)
Major Threats
Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) — podcast
Brad Pitt (Babylon)
Tom Hanks (Elvis) — podcast 1 and 2
Possibilities
Ben Whishaw (Women Talking)
Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway)
Micheal Ward (Empire of Light)
*BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS*
Frontrunners
Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever)
Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once)
Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — podcast
Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness)
Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin)
Major Threats
Hong Chau (The Whale)
Janelle Monáe (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) — podcast
Nina Hoss (Tár)
Claire Foy (Women Talking) — podcast
Jessie Buckley (Women Talking)
Possibilities
Gabrielle Union (The Inspection)
Carey Mulligan (She Said) — podcast
Keke Palmer (Nope)
Jean Smart (Babylon)
Lashana Lynch (The Woman King)
*BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
Women Talking (Sarah Polley)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Rian Johnson)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson & Ian Stokell)
Living (Kazuo Ishiguro)
White Noise (Noah Baumbach)
Major Threats
The Whale (Samuel D. Hunter)
She Said (Rebecca Lenkiewicz)
Lady Chatterley’s Lover (David Magee)
The Good Nurse (Krysty Wilson-Cairns)
Possibilities
Top Gun: Maverick (Peter Craig, Ehren Kruger, Justin Marks, Christopher McQuarrie & Eric Warren Singer)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Joe Robert Cole & Ryan Coogler)
Avatar: The Way of Water (James Cameron, Rick Jaffa & Amanda Silver)
*BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY*
Frontrunners
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Martin McDonagh)
The Fabelmans (Tony Kushner & Steven Spielberg) — podcast (Spielberg)
Tár (Todd Field)
Triangle of Sadness (Ruben Östlund)
Major Threats
Elvis (Jeremy Doner, Baz Luhrmann, Sam Bromell & Craig Pearce)
Babylon (Damien Chazelle) — podcast
The Woman King (Dana Stevens)
Nope (Jordan Peele) — podcast
RRR (S. S. Rajamouli)
Possibilities
Till (Keith Beauchamp, Chinonye Chukwu & Michael Reilly)
Aftersun (Charlotte Wells)
Armageddon Time (James Gray) — podcast
Close (Lukas Dhont & Angelo Tijssens)
The Inspection (Elegance Bratton)
*BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE*
Frontrunners
All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
Argentina, 1985 (Argentina)
EO (Poland)
The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
Close (Belgium)
Major Threats
Decision to Leave (South Korea)
Holy Spider (Denmark)
Saint Omer (France)
Corsage (Austria)
Bardo (Mexico) — podcast (Alejandro González Iñárritu)
Possibilities
Last Film Show (India)
Cairo Conspiracy (Sweden)
The Blue Caftan (Morocco)
Joyland (Pakistan)
Return to Seoul (Cambodia)
*BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE*
Frontrunners
All That Breathes (HBO)
Navalny (Warner Bros./CNN)
Retrograde (Nat Geo)
Last Flight Home (MTV)
Bad Axe (IFC)
Major Threats
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Neon)
Fire of Love (Nat Geo/Neon)
The Territory (Nat Geo)
Descendant (Netflix)
Moonage Daydream (Neon)
Possibilities
The Janes (HBO)
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, a Journey, a Song (Sony Classics)
Hidden Letters (Cargo)
Children of the Mist (Film Movement)
A House Made of Splinters (still seeking U.S. distribution)
*BEST ANIMATED FEATURE*
Frontrunners
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Netflix)
Marcel the Shell With Shoes On (A24)
Turning Red (Pixar)
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (Dreamworks)
Wendell & Wild (Netflix)
Major Contenders
Inu-Oh (GKIDS)
Strange World (Disney)
Apollo 10 1/2 (Netflix)
The Bob’s Burgers Movie (20th Century)
The Bad Guys (Universal)
Possibilities
Minions: The Rise of Gru (Universal/Illumination)
Eternal Spring (ARTE)
Luck (Apple/Skydance)
My Father’s Dragon (Netflix)
The Sea Beast (Netflix)
*BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY*
Frontrunners
Top Gun: Maverick (Claudio Miranda)
Elvis (Mandy Walker)
Babylon (Linus Sandgren)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Russell Carpenter)
The Fabelmans (Janusz Kaminski)
Major Threats
Empire of Light (Roger Deakins)
The Batman (Greig Fraser)
Bardo (Darius Khondji)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Autumn Durald Arkapaw)
All Quiet on the Western Front (James Friend)
Tár (Florian Hoffmeister)
Emancipation (Robert Richardson)
Possibilities
The Banshees of Inisherin (Ben Davis)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Larkin Seiple)
RRR (K. K. Senthil Kumar)
The Woman King (Polly Morgan)
Don’t Worry Darling (Matty Libatique)
Women Talking (Luc Montpellier)
Nope (Hoyte van Hoytema)
*BEST COSTUME DESIGN*
Frontrunners
Elvis (Catherine Martin)
Babylon (Mary Zophres)
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ruth E. Carter)
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris (Jenny Beavan)
Living (Sandy Powell)
Major Threats
The Fabelmans (Mark Bridges)
The Woman King (Gersha Phillips)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Deborah Lynn Scott)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Jenny Eagan)
Empire of Light (Alexandra Byrne)
Till (Marci Rodgers)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Shirley Kurata)
White Noise (Ann Roth)
Don’t Worry Darling (Arianne Phillips)
Possibilities
The Banshees of Inisherin (Eimer Ni Mhaoldomhnaigh)
The Batman (Jacqueline Durran)
Blonde (Jennifer Johnson)
Tár (Bina Daigeler)
Corsage (Monika Buttinger)
Women Talking (Quita Alfred)
My Policeman (Annie Symons)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Diane Dwyer, Laura Kerrigan & Annika Schindler)
Armageddon Time (Madeline Weeks)
*BEST FILM EDITING*
Frontrunners
Top Gun: Maverick (Eddie Hamilton)
Elvis (Jonathan Redmond & Matt Villa)
Avatar: The Way of Water (David Brenner, James Cameron, John Refoua & Stephen E. Rivkin)
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Paul Rogers)
The Fabelmans (Sarah Broshar & Michael Kahn)
Major Threats
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Kelley Dixon, Jennifer Lame & Michael P. Shawver)
Babylon (Tom Cross)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Bob Ducsay)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Mikkel E.G. Nielsen)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Sven Budelmann)
Tár (Monika Willi)
Triangle of Sadness (Mikel Cee Karlsson & Ruben Östlund)
Possibilities
RRR (A. Sreekar Prasad)
Thirteen Lives (James D. Wilcox)
The Batman (William Hoy & Tyler Nelson)
The Woman King (Terilyn A. Shropshire)
Women Talking (Christopher Donaldson & Roslyn Kalloo)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Holly Klein & Ken Schretzmann)
She Said (Hansjörg Weißbrich)
*BEST MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING*
Frontrunners
Elvis
The Whale
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
All Quiet on the Western Front
Major Threats
Crimes of the Future
Blonde
Babylon
Possibilities
Emancipation
Amsterdam
*BEST ORIGINAL SCORE*
Frontrunners
Babylon (Justin Hurwitz)
The Fabelmans (John Williams)
Women Talking (Hildur Guðnadóttir)
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio (Alexandre Desplat)
Avatar: The Way of Water (Simon Franglen)
Major Threats
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Ludwig Göransson)
The Woman King (Terence Blanchard)
All Quiet on the Western Front (Volker Bertelmann)
She Said (Nicholas Britell)
The Banshees of Inisherin (Carter Burwell)
Possibilities
Everything Everywhere All at Once (Son Lux)
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (Nathan Johnson)
Devotion (Chanda Dancy)
Don’t Worry Darling (John Powell)
Nope (Michael Abels)
*BEST ORIGINAL SONG*
Frontrunners
“Naatu Naatu” (RRR) — M. M. Keeravani and Chandrabose
“Lift Me Up” (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) — Ryan Coogler, Ludwig Göransson, Rihanna and Tems
“Hold My Hand” (Top Gun: Maverick) — Lady Gaga and Michael ‘BloodPop’ Tucker — podcast 1 and 2 (Gaga)
“New Body Rhumba” (White Noise) — James Murphy
“Stand Up” (Till) — Dernst ‘D’Mile’ Emile II and Jazmine Sullivan
Major Threats
“Ciao Papa” (Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio) — Guillermo del Toro and Roeban Katz — podcast (del Toro)
“Carolina” (Where the Crawdads Sing) — Taylor Swift
“Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)” (Avatar: The Way of Water) — Simon Franglen, Swedish House Mafia and Abel ‘The Weeknd’ Tesfaye
“This Is a Life” (Everything Everywhere All at Once) — David Byrne, Ryan Lott and Mitski — podcast (Byrne)
“Applause” (Tell It Like a Woman) — Diane Warren — podcast
Possibilities
“My Mind and Me” (Selena Gomez: My Mind and Me) — Amy Allen, Jonathan Bellion, Selena Gomez, Jordan K. Johnson, Stefan Johnson & Michael Pollack — podcast (Gomez)
“Good Afternoon” (Spirited) — Benj Pasek, Khiyon Hursey, Sukari Jones, Justin Paul & Mark Sonnenblick
“Time” (Amsterdam) — Aubrey ‘Drake’ Graham, Giveon Evans, Daniel Pemberton and Jahaan Akil Sweet
“Dust & Ash” (The Voice of Dust and Ash) — J. Ralph — podcast
“Til You’re Home” (A Man Called Otto) — David Hodges & Rita Wilson
*BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN*
Frontrunners
Elvis
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Avatar: The Way of Water
Glass Onion: A Knives Onion Mystery
Major Threats
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Thirteen Lives
The Woman King
RRR
Triangle of Sadness
Possibilities
Bardo
Don’t Worry Darling
Women Talking
Till
The Banshees of Inisherin
Don’t Worry Darling
Empire of Light
Living
Tár
*BEST SOUND*
Frontrunners
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
Avatar: The Way of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
All Quiet on the Western Front
Major Threats
Babylon
The Batman
Moonage Daydream
Possibilities
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
*BEST VISUAL EFFECTS*
Frontrunners
Avatar: The Way of Water
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
The Batman
Top Gun: Maverick
Major Threats
All Quiet on the Western Front
Jurassic World Dominion
Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore
Possibilities
Thirteen Lives
Nope
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