There was a moment in the past year when dozens of media and political reporters found themselves in the same room, sitting patiently for hours, essentially doing nothing but speculating about what was about to happen.
That’s generally a fraught scenario, but in this case, it was a bit fortuitous in that Delaware courtroom, waiting for proceedings to resume. At 4 p.m. that day in April, the judge announced that Fox had reached a settlement with Dominion Voting Systems just as a landmark defamation trial was about to begin. The revelations from the case — and the network’s $787.5 million payout — made for what was one of the biggest media business stories of the year.
The next year will be vastly different, what with a presidential election race in full swing, but it is also likely to be another 12 months of tumult in the industry. The decline in linear TV, the emergence of artificial intelligence, and the continued uncertainty in the advertising business add to the anxieties, yet the next year also is likely to see great examples of journalism, despite all of the challenges.
That was true in 2023, as network correspondents covered the Israel-Hamas war and the ongoing situation in Ukraine. And the arrest and continued imprisonment of the Wall Street Journal‘s Evan Gershkovich in Russia is a reminder of the dangers international journalists face in autocratic societies. As we enter 2024, the entire journalism community hopes — and prays — for his release.
Here are 10 of the stories to watch in the coming year:
The 2024 election
Just a few weeks in to the new year, we may have a pretty good idea of whether 2024 will see a rematch between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Biden is facing a nominal intra-party challenge from candidates including Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN), while Trump still leads in Iowa, which holds its caucuses on January 15, and New Hampshire, with a primary on January 23. While Trump has dominated throughout the year, the media focus will be on Nikki Haley and whether she can defy expectations in either early state, setting up what could be a protracted primary fight. The Granite State in particular has a long tradition of surprises, slowing or stopping presumptive nominees, but if Trump has a blowout in the state, it’s hard to see how he would ultimately be denied the nomination.
Polls show that voters would like an option other than a Biden vs. Trump rematch, which would be the first such scenario since 1956, when Adlai Stevenson again challenged President Dwight D. Eisenhower. The circumstances were obviously much different and television was in its infancy, but Biden and Trump were each old enough to remember it.
Even if the race is Trump vs. Biden, there’s also the third major-candidate scenario, as Robert Kennedy Jr. campaigns as an independent and the group No Labels floats a “unity” ticket. Recent past cycles have shown that the most predictable thing about presidential cycles is that they can be unpredictable.
Disinformation nation
Some mainstream media outlets have for some time invested in fact-checking and “disinformation” reporters to warn viewers of pervasive falsehoods, but the rise of AI has made their work all the more challenging. The expectation is that the 2024 election will be a major test of the ability to combat misinformation, particularly with AI models still in their formative stage. In its copyright infringement lawsuit against OpenAI and Microsoft, the New York Times claims that the AI products are not only using their content with out permission, but also attributing wrong information to them. Meanwhile, CBS News launched a new venture to identify IA-generated deepfakes and misinformation, while TikTok announced a tool to label such content and tests to do so automatically. Google is requiring labeling of AI-generated content in political ads, and Meta is restricting campaigns from using their tools for such spots. But these precautions may address a fraction of the flow of deepfakes and other false stories that circulate as the 2024 election gets in full swing. Already, NBC News objected to a clip shared by the Trump campaign that falsely made it seem like correspondent Garrett Haake was bashing two of the former president’s rivals, Haley and Ron DeSantis. The efforts by networks to curb misinformation likely will be met by a fresh set of media bashing, particularly among those on the right, ready with the the rallying cry of “Hunter Biden’s laptop.”
Trump on trial
Donald Trump faces four criminal trials over more than 90 charges, setting up an unprecedented scenario in which a party’s nominee enters the general election with the possibility of a conviction. While Trump may very well spend a good chunk of time in court during the year, the question is whether any of the trials will actually move forward before the election, given the bevy of appeals and other delays. The first trial, set to start in federal court on March 4, is now in doubt as an appellate court and possibly the Supreme Court take up the question of presidential immunity. The New York criminal case is scheduled to start on March 25 and a federal trial in Florida is set to begin May 20. A date for his trial on criminal charges in Georgia has not been set, although prosecutors have recommended August 5.
Whether pre-trial hearings or a trial itself, viewers are not likely to see much of it at all, except for the Georgia case, where courts have allowed televised access. But New York and federal courts generally restrict televised coverage of the proceedings, and even though networks have submitted filings urging coverage of an unprecedented situation, judges have so far not budged from long tradition of keeping media cameras out of proceedings.
Donald Trump at the opening of his New York civil fraud trial
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images
Debate doubts
Donald Trump recently said that he would do as “many debates as they want” against Joe Biden. That seems to be an opening volley in what could be a protracted series of negotiations over what will be one of the biggest TV events of the year: the general election debates.
RELATED: 2024 Presidential Election Debate Schedule: Dates, Times, Who’ll Be There And Who Won’t
The Republican National Committee voted last year to withdraw from the general election debates, claiming that the organization that runs them was biased against the GOP. The organization, the Commission on Presidential Debates, has already announced a schedule of three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate next year. Made up of Republicans and Democrats, the commission has long maintained its independence from the campaigns, whether in setting the schedule or selecting the moderators. Trump’s recent willingness to participate is a reminder that, no matter what the party says, campaigns will operate on their own terms. The former president, who will be 78, now seems to believe that it’s now in his own self-interest to debate Biden, 81, if they are in for a rematch.
That said, even if Trump has the advantage, there’s every reason to believe that the build up to the general election debates will be turbulence, given the stakes and the animosity between the candidates. One of the 2020 debates was canceled when Trump, recovering from Covid, refused to participate in a virtual event. Four years earlier, Trump complained that the debate commission was rigged. What would be a genuine surprise is if there are no debates at all this cycle. Since 1976, not a cycle has gone by without at least one meeting of the major candidates.
Cable news comeback?
The 2016 and 2020 presidential cycles were very good for the cable news networks, as they saw a big ratings bounce, largely due to the drama surrounding Trump. Will that happen again in 2024? Early signs are that there will be some uptick, but nothing like the blockbuster numbers of the past, due perhaps to the continued diffusion of the news audience and that the novelty of the former Celebrity Apprentice host is not what it once was. The first GOP primary debate in August, for instance, averaged 12.8 million viewers for Fox News. That’s a hefty number, particularly since Trump did not participate, but it’s still far short of the 24 million who watched the first Republican gathering in 2015. Trump has boasted that he has helped networks draw great ratings, and a recent town hall with Sean Hannity had 3.2 million viewers, giving the network a boost for the hour. But that was short of the number of viewers who watched a Hannity-moderated Ron DeSantis-Gavin Newsom debate on Fox News at the end of November.
Ron DeSantis and Gavin Newsom appear on screen from the press room during November’s debate
Christian Monterrosa / AFP via Getty Images
Media mergers
The late-in-the-year news that Warner Bros Discovery has had discussions with Paramount Global about a merger sparked all sorts of prognostication about the future of traditional media and whether the next year will be one of consolidation. A Warner-Paramount matchup may never materialize, but if a deal were structured for a CBS News-CNN combination, it would be a unique melding of two legacy brands with different newsroom cultures. The caveat in all the predictions of merger mania is the regulatory environment in Washington, D.C., where Biden-era agencies and attorneys are taking a harder line on consolidation, most recently with the release of a set of new merger guidelines. That includes challenging such combinations based on the impact they have on labor markets. That isn’t to say no mergers will go through: Microsoft and Activision completed their merger this year, but only after battling the FTC and regulators in the UK.
Google’s legal gauntlet
The coming year could be one where big tech is reined in, particularly if the federal government emerges victorious in cases against Google. Sometime next year, a federal judge is expected to rule on the Justice Department’s challenge to Google’s dominance in the search business, following a high-profile trial last fall. Closing arguments are scheduled in May. Google also faces a trial in Virginia over its ad technology business. A judge also will decide what remedy the company should face after a jury found in favor in Epic Games in its antitrust challenge over Google’s app store.
Disney-DeSantis
His campaign may have faltered, but DeSantis still has a battle with The Walt Disney Co. on the books. A federal judge is expected to decide soon whether to allow Disney’s case against the governor to move forward, as the company claimed that DeSantis violated the First Amendment when he led an effort to strip the company of control over a board that oversees its Florida theme park property. Disney CEO Bob Iger has been adamant that the company was punished for opposing the so-called “don’t say gay” bill, while DeSantis has insisted that the state was merely ending 55 years of special treatment for Walt Disney World. A settlement is always a possibility, but the story itself is indicative of how prone companies are to being caught up in the culture wars, even if the issue seems to have been of limited saliency to DeSantis on the presidential campaign trail. If the case does move forward, it will set up an even longer battle between the state and Disney, something that would have been unthinkable a decade ago, when the Mouse House wielded enormous influence and the state embraced its boon to tourism and the economy.
Fox News
Fox’s settled with Dominion Voting Systems over the network’s amplification of false claims that the election systems company helped rig the 2020 election. But the litigation is not over, as another company, Smartmatic, pursues a $2.7 billion lawsuit against the network. The case is still in the discovery phase, and a trial may not happen until 2025, if at all. Fox may want to avoid a repeat of what happened with Dominion, in which loads of discovery material was unsealed, revealing emails, texts and other documents from major executives and personalities that gave a rare glimpse into the inner workings of the network. Fox attorneys, meanwhile, have tried to distinguish the Smartmatic case from Dominion, while also challenging the damages claims and defending its coverage as protected by the First Amendment.
A Smartmatic voting machine
Smartmatic
Tucker’s ticket
The week after the Dominion settlement, Tucker Carlson was booted off the Fox News airwaves. The departure of Fox News’ top-rated personality was one of the biggest surprises of the year, but less of a shock was his next move: starting his own media company. That started with an X/Twitter interview series, loaded with provocative guests, as well as a recently launched, $6-per-month subscription streaming site. While Carlson undoubtedly has a fanbase, there’s a big question as to whether his ventures will match the influence that he had on the Fox News platform, where his commentary could trigger an outcry on Capitol Hill. There’s also a lot of right-wing personalities doing much the same thing including Carlson’s predecessor in conspiratorial content, Glenn Beck, who founded The Blaze after his departure from Fox News.
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