Bitwise, currently the fourth-largest spot Bitcoin ETF issuer in the United States, with assets under management totaling $1.778 billion, has published a series of stunning predictions for the Bitcoin landscape leading up to the 2028 halving. These projections are not only grounded in past data and trends but also reflect a deeper integration of BTC into broader financial systems.
#1 Decline In Bitcoin’s Volatility
Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, Matt Hougan, anticipates a 50% reduction in BTC’s volatility by the next halving in 2028. This prediction is based on the observed trend of decreasing volatility over the years, which is expected to accelerate due to the changing composition of the market’s participants.
The influx of institutional investors through Bitcoin ETFs has begun to stabilize price fluctuations. Unlike retail investors, who often react swiftly to market shifts and news, institutional investors typically employ strategies that involve regular, calculated entries and exits.
“ETFs have opened the door to a more disciplined approach to Bitcoin investing, which we expect will significantly dampen the historical volatility associated with this asset class,” Hougan noted.
#2 Bitcoin Allocations In Target-Date Portfolios
The prediction that Bitcoin allocations will become common in target-date portfolios to the tune of 5% or more is based on the increasing familiarity and comfort financial advisors are finding in the cryptocurrency as a legitimate asset class. Hougan suggests that the current absence of BTC in major target-date funds in the US is a temporary condition.
“As the market matures and volatility continues to decrease, the perceived risk of including Bitcoin in diversified long-term investment portfolios diminishes, making it an increasingly attractive option for portfolio managers,” explained Hougan. This shift is expected to be mirrored in the adoption rates seen in similar funds in Canada and other forward-leaning markets.
#3 Explosive Growth In ETF Flows
Since their US launch, the spot ETFs have recorded approximately $12.5 billion in net flows, marking them as the fastest-growing new ETF category ever. Hougan projects that these funds will attract more than $200 billion by 2028, spurred by broader availability and deeper due diligence from institutional investors.
“The trajectory we’ve seen with gold ETFs, which saw consistently increasing flows for years after their introduction, is a good model for what we expect with Bitcoin ETFs,” said Hougan. The anticipation of eventual acceptance by national wirehouses and further institutional validation could serve as major catalysts for this growth.
#4 Central Bank Adoption Of Bitcoin
One of the more controversial predictions is that central banks might begin to include BTC in their reserves, drawn by its qualities as non-debt money that offers functional advantages over traditional reserves like gold. “In a world where traditional financial systems are increasingly politicized, Bitcoin offers an attractive alternative for central banks looking to diversify away from fiat currencies that can be influenced by foreign governments,” Hougan asserted.
The strategic importance of being the first mover among central banks could trigger a domino effect, dramatically shifting the global financial landscape toward decentralized assets.
#5 BTC Price To Exceed $250,000
The final prediction concerns BTC’s price, which Hougan believes will exceed $250,000, bringing its market capitalization to about $5 trillion. This price target is based on a combination of factors, including the continued reduction in volatility, enhanced regulatory clarity, and broader institutional adoption.
“Each halving cycle brings about a confluence of technological, market, and sociopolitical developments that historically have resulted in significant price appreciation. With the advancements we’re observing, a $250,000 price point is within the realm of possibility,” noted Hougan.
At press time, BTC traded at $64,064.
Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
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