Jaded Russian diplomats in darkish fits are parroting failed propaganda strains in EU capitals, in accordance with a grim portrait of Russian diplomacy by Estonian spies after one 12 months of warfare.
Some Russians really feel demotivated due to little issues, reminiscent of late cost of wages because of issues arising from EU monetary sanctions.
“Russian diplomats’ new daily concerns include the anxiety of not knowing whether they will receive their monthly salary in their bank account or, if not, which colleague to borrow money from,” Estonia’s overseas intelligence service (EFIS) mentioned in an annual report printed on Wednesday (8 February).
“This has an impact on the morale of diplomats stationed abroad. Their motivation isn’t high and it’s dropping, which is something we want to achieve,” EFIS director Kaupo Rosin additionally informed press.
However the greater morale drain is as a result of the Russian overseas ministry not does overseas coverage, EFIS mentioned.
“Russian diplomats were also kept in the dark about [Russian president Vladimir] Putin’s plans to attack Ukraine,” its report mentioned.
“According to our information, they found out about it on the morning of 24 February [2022] through the media. Confusion and bewilderment ensued, with no one having prepared any talking points in advance,” it added.
Russia is cultivating nearer ties with China and African nations, however the Kremlin has all-but given up on diplomacy with Europe, Estonia indicated.
“Russian diplomats’ role in the West is reduced to a monotonous repetition of propaganda lies. Russian ambassadors, finding themselves in an information black-out, are regularly forced to improvise at international meetings,” mentioned EFIS, whose annual stories are extensively adopted by Western safety consultants as a result of prime quality of Estonian intelligence.
“The diplomatic corps has been degraded into a situation where they have to repeat the same talking points, but have no impact on policy development,” Rosin added.
Russian diplomats in Turkey, as an illustration, had been issued talking factors designed to hurt Turkey’s ratification of Finland and Sweden’s Nato accession, Rosin mentioned.
However these rehearsed unconvincing previous claims about Western aggression and escalations dangers, as an alternative of relating the row over anti-Islamic protests in Sweden, he famous.
“I haven’t seen anything regarding Islam,” Rosin mentioned.
His spy service additionally intercepted what it referred to as “the outrageous and unoriginal statements that served as the starting point for the [Russian] special services’ brainstorming” on learn how to have a good time Russian president Vladimir Putin’s birthday final September, in an additional signal of inside decay.
“1. During his rule, Putin has increased Russia’s GDP 12-fold. 2. Putin has increased Russia’s gold reserves 48-fold”, had been among the many Russian spies’ “laughingstock” concepts, EFIS mentioned.
In the meantime, the darkish fits come from the Russian overseas ministry’s strict costume code, which provides an additional perception into Russian diplomatic tradition.
“The requirements for men are conservative — a dark blue or grey suit, with combinations of different jackets and trousers allowed, but only as long as the colours match,” the code says, in accordance with EFIS.
“Pockets are purely decorative and not to be used for hands. Perfume must be used in moderation; hands and nails must be well groomed. No visible tattoos or piercings are allowed”, Russia’s code provides.
A feminine diplomat should “have a conservative hairstyle appropriate for her age and position; longer than shoulder-length hair must be neatly styled, and dyeing in unnatural shades is prohibited”, it provides.
“Daytime make-up must be understated … and skirt hems must be 5 cm above or below the knee,” it additionally says.
However EFIS added a photograph of Russian overseas ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova sporting a pink costume at her TV podium which “appears to be shorter than allowed”.
‘Nonetheless harmful’
For its half, Estonia ejected 13 Russian diplomats and eight embassy technical workers in January on grounds they had been doing nothing to advance peace.
“In the context of Russia’s ongoing full-scale war on the soil of Europe against Ukraine, it’s worth considering also by other countries in the Western community,” Estonian overseas minister Urmas Reinsalu told EUobserver on the time.
However Russian affect operations in Europe transcend its flagging diplomacy, EFIS famous in its report, referring to Russian espionage and to Russian Orthodox Church outreach actions.
The Russian FSB home spy company “coordinates the preservation and renewal of a fifth column, especially in countries bordering Russia with a large Russian-speaking community,” Estonia warned.
EU nations collectively additionally expelled some 400 Russian diplomats on grounds of espionage final 12 months.
Its embassy to the EU in Brussels, as an illustration, misplaced 19 personnel — nearly half its workers.
And when requested by EUobserver on Wednesday if extra expulsions had been wanted, Rosin mentioned: “I would say the threat from Russian intelligence was of course affected [by the EU expulsions] but the Russians are still there and still dangerous”.
The EFIS report painted an image of an remoted Russian chief, who has centralised all decision-making in his presidential administration and who solely trusts his prime aides Anton Vaino and Sergey Kiriyenko, whereas being cautious of the rise of oligarch warlords, reminiscent of mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.
However Putin has ploughed billions into his inside safety equipment and there is no prospect on inside regime change, as an illustration on this 12 months’s presidential elections, EFIS mentioned.
‘Ageing autocrat’
“Putin still has full grip on power,” Rosin mentioned on Wednesday.
Russia’s strategic aim — to defeat Ukraine on the battlefield and to push Nato again to Chilly Struggle-era borders — additionally “remains unchanged,” Rosin added.
Russia was anticipated to launch a serious new floor offensive within the south and east of Ukraine this 12 months in what has turn out to be a warfare of “attrition”, the EFIS chief mentioned.
This might come as quickly as late February or a number of months from now, relying on whether or not Putin’s political or navy logic prevails, giving his military extra time for mobilisation, Rosin mentioned.
“Decisions made by an ageing autocrat, only considering expert opinions based on personal whims and prejudices, are prone to miscalculation,” the EFIS report mentioned.
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